Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ON SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS
TOWARD THE MID OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...BIG CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF VERMONT. AND ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT TILL 10 PM EASTERN AND NORTHERN VERMONT. MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO BE HIGH WINDS...BUT SMALL HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. VORT STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND TOWARDS SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. ANOTHER VORT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA. WITH BEST WINDS LOCATED
AT AND ABOVE 500 MB AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULSE LIKE IN NATURE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SUPERCELLS. WITH SECOND VORT
CROSSING THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY WELL
WORKED OVER...BETTER DYNAMICS DO EXIST WITH THIS FEATURE...AS
WELL AS SOME COOLING ALOFT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND PROFILES MAY
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW TOP BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. OVERNIGHT...A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR CWA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY SUSTAINING
TSRA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.
LOWS WILL NOT DROP VERY MUCH WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND CAA KICKS IN BEHIND IT.
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE CONTINUED SHOWERS...AND SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. LOW
AND MID LEVELS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE CONTINUING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE
VERY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW...AND OVERNIGHT THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DURING THE DAY MONDAY NW FLOW CONTINUES
WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED VORTS...ALTHOUGH BEST DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS WITH STRONG NW
FLOW. SHOWERS WILL END DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PLACING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACHES THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FAIR
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALL SITES WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY INCLUDE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 1000
FT IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BELOW 1000 FT AT KSLK...AND VISIBILITY
TO 2SM. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER
23Z...SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUNTAIN SITES. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SUN/SUN NGT...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. WLY WINDS
10-20 MPH DURING THE DAY SUN.

MONDAY/MONDAY NGT...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS /MAINLY DUE TO
CIGS/ WITH SCT -RW POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE NERN CONUS. LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NGT/THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...BANACOS/MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001-005-009-011-017>019-102000-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-WESTERN ADDISON-WESTERN RUTLAND-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VTZ002>004-006>008-010-012-016-102000-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST
VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ANY REPORTS OF
HAIL...WIND GUSTS...AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GREATLY BE APPRECIATED.

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             NEWCOMB                 43.97N 74.17W
05/09/2009  E0.75 INCH       ESSEX              NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED AT NEWCOMB VISITOR CENTER

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             3 SSW MORIAH            44.01N 73.52W
05/09/2009  E0.75 INCH       ESSEX              NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAHIFF

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