Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 515 CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE AREA UNTIL
7 PM THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MORE
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...MESO-DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED THIS AFTN ACRS NNY AND
VT. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT
5H VORT ACRS THE SLV ATTM. SOME DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS
REPORTED NEAR OGDENSBURG ASSOCIATED WITH 70 DBZ UP TO 10KFT AND 50
TO 55 DBZ UP TO 30 KFT. OTHERWISE...MORE ISOLATED SVR PULSE STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS NORTHERN CPV AND VT...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC
TROF AND MAX SFC INSTABILITY. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST LLVL CAPE
VALUES OF 1800 J/KG ACRS THE SLV...WITH UP 2500 J/KG OVER THE
CENTRAL CPV NEAR BTV. IN ADDITION...NOTICING MORE INSTABILITY ACRS
THE NEK WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. EARLIER CONVECTION
ACRS SOUTHERN VT HAS STABILIZED THIS AREA...BUT EXPECT MORE STORMS
TO RE-DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT PENNY TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AS BEING THE MAIN SVR WEATHER THREAT THRU 9 PM
THIS EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
STORMS TO DECREASE BY 9 PM THIS EVENING AS SFC HEATING DECREASES.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THRU TONIGHT WL BE CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS TO OUR FA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS. FIRST VORT MOVING ACRS NNY ATTM...HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN
LINE OF STRONG STORMS. BASED ON STRONG DYNAMICS AND COLD POOL
ALOFT...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONT ACRS OUR CWA THRU 03Z
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY BECMG MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BY 03Z TONIGHT.
WL MENTION LIKELY POPS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THRU THIS
EVENING...THEN JUST CHC POPS OF SHOWERS AFT 03Z TONIGHT. BY
06Z...EXPECT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO DEVELOP ACRS OUR
CWA...WHICH COMBINED WITH DECREASING 850-500MB MOISTURE
PROFILES...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY ACRS
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING. SFC DWPTS SHOULD
DROP BACK INTO THE 50S...WHICH COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER BL
TEMPS WL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 60F CPV/SLV AND
M50S DACKS/NEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...MID/UPPER CLOSED CIRCULATION WL TRACK ACRS CENTRAL
NY ON SATURDAY WHILE WEAK SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER SNE. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS MOVING ACRS OUR FA...BUT GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE OF INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACRS OUR CWA.
FEEL BASED ON COOLER SFC TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER SFC DWPTS...CAPE
VALUES WL BE LESS...PROBABLY BTWN 500-700 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACRS EASTERN VT. NAM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH CLOUDS/QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS ACRS OUR CWA ON SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT ALONG AN AXIS
FROM THE NEK BACK TWD ALBANY WITH SOME ENHANCED QPF BTWN 0.20 AND
0.40. MEANWHILE...GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROGGS
ACRS OUR REGION...WHICH HELPS TO ENHANCE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY/HEATING. WL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
MENTION CHC POPS IN THE MORNING WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE AFTN ON SATURDAY. HIGHEST POPS WL BE ACRS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND THE CPV. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP TO AROUND
12C ON NORTHERLY SFC FLW AND CLOUDS...THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M70S CPV/SLV...L70S EASTERN/CENTRAL VT...AND NEAR 70F MTNS.

CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL CONT TO IMPACT THE NE CONUS AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD ACRS OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. GIVEN THE VERY COMPLEX AND COMPLICATED ULVL PATTERN AND
SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH THE HIGHEST CHCS DURING
PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY FROM SATURDAY TO NEAR
13C...WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE L60S. THIS COULD CREATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND WL MENTION ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 242 PM EDT FRIDAY...MDLS CONT TO SHOW SIMILAR PATTERN HAS
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS...INVOLVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITTING OVER
THE GREAT LKS REGION MONDAY...RIGHT INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
MDL DIFF IN AMT OF PRECIP AND TIMING MAINLY WITH GFS/ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO SPLIT DIFF KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS BANDS OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL MV INLAND
ASSOCIATED W/ CIRCULATION. WILL SLACKEN POPS SOME TOWARDS END OF
NEXT WEEK AS GFS DOES HINT AT LOW LIFTING SOME INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...BUT EXTENSIVE CLD COVER WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
W/ FOCUS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MDL QPF
HAS POTENTIAL TO HIT NEAR 1.00 FOR THE EVENT. CONTINUING TO
UNDERCUT MDL MAX GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CLD
COVER...BUT HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNGT LOWS A BIT FOR SAME REASON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...COND WILL RANGE FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR. UPPER
LOW WILL SWING THRU RW/TRW THRU 00Z SAT. CEILINGS BKN020-030 AND
VSBY IN RAIN 4-5SM...AFT 00Z LGT PERSISTENT RW/FG WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE SINKS OVER THE
REGION...VSBY DOWN TO 4-6SM W/ OCNL 2-3SM SLK/MPV. SSW WINDS
5-15KTS WILL BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THEN BECM NNW 5-10KTS BY 10Z SAT.

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF CLOSED UPPER LOWS
EVOLVING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR. GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...NO
LARGE-SCALE STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE AVIATION
OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BANACOS/JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1218 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-271630-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1218 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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