Wind Advisory 18, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
314 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST TX. DEEP
SOUTH TX AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SHOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COAST WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR
CAMERON...WILLACY AND HIDALGO COUNTIES INCLUDING THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF CAMERON COUNTY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. FARTHER SOUTH...VERY WARM...HUMID AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TX THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST ACROSS WEST TX AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU
THE MRNG. MODERATE SE WINDS OVRNGT WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING AS
MIXING OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AFTER 15Z.
&&

.MARINE...THE 1 AM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 17 KTS AND SEAS WERE
AROUND 6 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS. THE WX PATTERN THAT HAS
PRODUCED MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACT. WINDS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE BUT WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN BY MID MORNING. SCA
FOR WINDS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE BEGINNING AT 13Z TDY WITH SCA OVER
NEAR AND OFFSHORE IN PLACE NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MDLS INDICATE A PERSISTENT PATTERN...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW TO CONTINUE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  75  87  76 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          87  75  88  75 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            90  74  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  73  92  73 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  75  84  76 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ253>255-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
942 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-251100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
942 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. PERIODIC POSTINGS OF RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AND CURED FUELS...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR
WILDFIRES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS COULD RESULT IN THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES DURING THE
WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.