Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
146 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION JUST STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNSET. DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GO WIDESPREAD AS UPPER SUPPORT...MAINLY JET
DYNAMICS...WANING OR SHIFTING EAST. AIRMASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH INTERACTION WITH OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE THE
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY CAN
NOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS IF CELL MERGERS OR BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONSISTENT IN THIS TREND WITH PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT FORECAST ALSO SHOWING PERSISTENCE. RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER
TO SLIGHT CHANCES TO ISOLATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY
HEATING AND SEABREEZE TO BE THE TRIGGER NEEDED.

ONCE THE RAIN CHANCES WANE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE AS WILL THE
HEAT INDICES. GFS MAV AND MEXMOS LOOK ON TRACK WITH AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION WITHOUT MUCH VARIATION.

ALL IS QUIET IN THE TROPICS WITH NO SUSPECT AREAS OF NOTE. THIS IS
THE TIME FOR ALL TO LOOK OVER THEIR PREPARATION AND EVACUATION
PLANS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV AND
CHECK OUT OUR RIO GRANDE VALLEY HURRICANE GUIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDUCE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO TEMPORARY MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 20 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS
AND SEAS AT 2.6 FEET WITH A 5 SECOND PERIOD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE AREAS AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS MAY
INCREASE IN OR NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  90  78  92 /  20  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          73  92  74  93 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            73  92  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
MCALLEN              74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  99  74 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  87  78  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
430 AM CDT MON JUNE 1 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-021100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
430 AM CDT MON JUNE 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
OF THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TOMASELLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
314 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             MCALLEN                 26.22N 98.24W
06/01/2009  M0.25 INCH       HIDALGO            TX   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR MCALLEN COUNTRY CLUB IN
            MCALLEN. HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
321 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             5 E EDINBURG            26.30N 98.08W
06/01/2009  U0.50 INCH       HIDALGO            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT 107 AND VAL VERDE NEAR SAN
            CARLOS.

&&

HART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
322 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

TXZ250-251-012100-
BROOKS-KENEDY-
322 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RURAL PORTIONS OF KENEDY AND
BROOKS COUNTIES...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT ENCINO AND
RACHAL...UNTIL 400 PM CDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...
CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

61/MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
326 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             18 SSW SARITA           26.98N 97.91W
06/01/2009  M0.25 INCH       KENEDY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON KING RANCH.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
331 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TSTM WND GST     MCALLEN                 26.22N 98.24W
06/01/2009  M52 MPH          HIDALGO            TX   ASOS

            PEAK GUST AT MCALLEN ASOS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
336 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     FLOOD            HARLINGEN               26.20N 97.69W
06/01/2009                   CAMERON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER REPORTED ALONG HARRISON AVE AND
            TYLER ST.

&&

HART