Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS54 KBRO 180316
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1016 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

TXC505-180325-
/O.CAN.KBRO.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090418T0330Z/
ZAPATA-
1016 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1015 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

LAT...LON 2713 9944 2721 9944 2727 9946 2731 9937
      2728 9933 2727 9896 2686 9931 2686 9932
      2688 9933 2692 9934 2695 9940 2698 9939
      2700 9941 2703 9946 2708 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 225DEG 0KT 2695 9927

$$

TOMASELLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA OF NORTHERN JIM HOGG AND
BROOKS COUNTY. MORE ACTIVITY IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER ZAPATA COUNTY.
UPDATED THE ZONES EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. OTHER MINOR CHANGES STILL POSSIBLE...AND
WILL ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009/ ...SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCS OVER EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING BACK INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX...THE CAP CONTINUES TO
HOLD AND THE STRONGER WINDS APPEAR TO BE KEEPING A LID ON
CONVECTION. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE STRONGEST LIFTING
INDICIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL AS WHERE THE
HIGHEST CAPES RESIDE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR COTULLA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL
INCREASE POPS NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE NAM12 PROGS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX PROPAGATING INTO DEEP SOUTH TX
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER EAST TX
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND AND THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING ONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LINGER SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 8 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS AT 20 CDT/01 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IF THE LARGE
SWELLS PERSIST. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY SWELLS...
MAY CAUSE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN EFFECT OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...LOWERED CEILINGS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY TOMORROW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  85  70  88 /  20  30  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          76  86  71  89 /  20  40  20  30
HARLINGEN            72  85  68  90 /  20  40  20  30
MCALLEN              73  87  70  92 /  20  40  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  81  71  93 /  20  40  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  83  71  84 /  20  30  20  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/66

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
315 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-181100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
315 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS. THERE IS A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA
CHICA DUE TO THESE SWELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY
SWELLS AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE ADVERSE
MARINE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY.
ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TOMASELLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
734 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

TXZ249-250-180145-
JIM HOGG-BROOKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS
734 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE IS
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST JIM HOGG
COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST AND NORTH BROOKS COUNTY. THIS
THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING ROUGHLY EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY RURAL JIM HOGG
AND BROOKS COUNTY THIS EVENING. PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

TOMASELLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
948 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     HAIL             4 N ZAPATA              26.95N 99.26W
04/17/2009  E1.00 INCH       ZAPATA             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ZAPATA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL 1 MILE NORTH OF THE CITY OF LAS PALMAS AND 4 MILES
            NORTH OF THE CITY OF ZAPATA IN ZAPATA COUNTY. OCCASIONAL
            HAILSTONES LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE.

&&

TOMASELLI