Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
834 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...VERY RARE AND POTENT OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NORTH OF
OUR REGION FIRED OFF SVR TSTMS W/HAIL NEAR GOLF BALL SIZE OVER
KENEDY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WOULD NORMALLY
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF NORTHEAST WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH...INSTEAD
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH PERSISTED FOR NEARLY 3 HOURS WITH
TSTMS DEVELOPING PRE AND POST BOUNDARY PASSAGE. THIS WAS THE LIFTING
MECHANISM THAT OUR VOLATILE ATM HAS BEEN WAITING FOR...AND MORE
NEEDED LIFT IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY. SPC WRITES...MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WHERE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AS WELL.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MEXICO BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE WEAK...BUT AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BENEATH MODEST
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS...WITH TSTMS COOKING 60 MILES SE
OF STARR COUNTY AND 70 MILES NW OF EXTREME WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY. BE
WEATHER AWARE TOMORROW
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009/MAIN FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MCS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE MRNG HRS NORTH OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREAS AROUND THE COASTAL BEND. THE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SHIFTING SEWD AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED DEVELOPMENT ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BRO CWA THRU THE AFTN/EVE POSSIBLY ALONG
OUTFLOW. MAIN THREAT WITH THE MOST SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. SPC
KEEPS DEEP SOUTH TX IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THRU 12Z FRI.
DECIDED TO RETAIN HIGHER POPS HERE THRU TNGT AND THEN BREAK THEM
SLIGHTLY OVRNGT AND THEM BUMP THEM BACK UP DURING THE DAYTIME THU.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD INTO OUR AREA THRU THU.
EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THRU THAT TIME
PERIOD. PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL THRU FRI AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO AND POTENTIALLY HAVE ONLY AN IMPACT ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. CONTINUED BLEND OF
MAV/MET TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM AS LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. OVERALL TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY
THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH EAST WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS AT
BUOY020 THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT GENERATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE ANVIL TOPS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDING
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  88  75  88 /  50  50  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          75  89  74  90 /  50  50  30  30
HARLINGEN            75  91  75  91 /  50  50  30  30
MCALLEN              76  90  75  91 /  50  50  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  94  75  93 /  50  50  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  86  77  85 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

58/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-281100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1105 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

TOMASELLI/SPEECE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1014 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     PORT MANSFIELD          26.55N 97.43W
05/27/2009  M51.00 MPH       WILLACY            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0408 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE BAYVIEW            26.17N 97.35W
05/27/2009  M46.00 MPH       CAMERON            TX   ASOS

0435 PM     HAIL             5 NW LOS FRESNOS        26.13N 97.54W
05/27/2009  E1.75 INCH       CAMERON            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

0522 PM     HAIL             4 ENE BROWNSVILLE       25.95N 97.42W
05/27/2009  E1.75 INCH       CAMERON            TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

TOMASELLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1037 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

TXZ248-249-280600-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE
1037 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE IS TRACKING
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NUEVO LEON
IN MEXICO RIGHT NOW. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 29 MPH...AND MAY AFFECT ZAPATA AND JIM
HOGG COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY PERSIST AND MOVE OVER ZAPATA
AND JIM HOGG COUNTY.

RESIDENTS IN ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO...FOR
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED.

TOMASELLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 N SAN YGNACIO         27.11N 99.45W
05/28/2009  E40 MPH          XXX                XX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ZAPATA COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTED WINDS OF 35 TO
            40 MPH 5 MILES NORTH OF SAN YGNACIO.

&&

TOMASELLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
136 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     HAIL             10 S HEBBRONVILLE       27.17N 98.69W
05/28/2009  E1.75 INCH       JIM HOGG           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            JIM HOGG COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTED GOLFBALL
            SIZE HAIL ON HIGHWAY 16 10 MILES SOUTH OF THE CITY OF
            HEBBRONVILLE.

&&

TOMASELLI

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