Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
220 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TX. CONTINUE TO MONITOR MCS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE MRNG
HRS NORTH OF THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREAS AROUND THE
COASTAL BEND. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SHIFTING SEWD AND RADAR TRENDS
HAVE INDICATED DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES CLOSER TO OUR
CWA. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BRO CWA THRU THE AFTN/EVE POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW. MAIN
THREAT WITH THE MOST SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. SPC KEEPS
DEEP SOUTH TX IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THRU 12Z FRI.
DECIDED TO RETAIN HIGHER POPS HERE THRU TNGT AND THEN BREAK THEM
SLIGHTLY OVRNGT AND THEM BUMP THEM BACK UP DURING THE DAYTIME THU.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD INTO OUR AREA THRU THU.
EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THRU THAT
TIME PERIOD. PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL THRU FRI AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT BACK TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO AND POTENTIALLY HAVE ONLY AN
IMPACT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. CONTINUED
BLEND OF MAV/MET TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM AS LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. OVERALL TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MIDDAY BRO RAOB IS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH A CAPE
OF 3600 J/KG AND A PWAT OF AROUND 1.9 INCHES. THE CONV COMPLEX
THAT FIRED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE IS
BUILDING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS CONV
COMPLEX WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SERIOUSLY IMPACT THE LOWER RGV
AIRPORTS SEVERAL HOURS FROM NOW. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH A TREND TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE CONV LINE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN THE CONV CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER TX BAY
AND GULF WATERS. EXPECT FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  88  75  88 /  50  50  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          75  89  74  90 /  50  50  30  30
HARLINGEN            75  91  75  91 /  50  50  30  30
MCALLEN              76  90  75  91 /  50  50  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  94  75  93 /  50  50  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  86  77  85 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS....57
MARINE/AVIATION...60
MESOSCALE...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-281100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1105 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

TOMASELLI/SPEECE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1150 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

TXZ248>257-272300-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
1150 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE
COUNTIES OF HIDALGO...BROOKS...KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...THE THREAT OF STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT
SAGS CLOSER TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR THEIR LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

SPEECE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND GST     53 NE PORT MANSFIELD    27.09N 96.82W
05/27/2009  M43 MPH          GMZ175             XX   BUOY

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
347 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     PORT MANSFIELD          26.55N 97.43W
05/27/2009  M51 MPH          WILLACY            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

RV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

TXZ255-257-272215-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL CAMERON-
417 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CAMERON
COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT LA PALOMA...SAN
BENITO...LANTANA AND LOZANO...UNTIL 515 PM CDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

61/MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE BAYVIEW            26.17N 97.35W
05/27/2009  M46 MPH          CAMERON            TX   ASOS

&&

TS