Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING IS THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX TRAVERSING THE CWA. THIS COMPLEX STARTED WEST OF ZAPATA
AT THE BEGINNING OF SHIFT...10 PM...AND IS NOW OVER MUCH OF
HIDALGO COUNTY. HOW MUCH WILL PERSIST BY 6 AM WHICH IS VALID TIME
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE. STRONGEST PORTION OF COMPLEX MOVING
SOUTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER WHILE THE NORTHERN EDGE IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING. IR SATELLITE SUGGEST WARMING OF THE TOPS IN
THE NORTH WITH MUCH COLDER TOPS IN THE SOUTH. WILL ADDED CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR UNTIL
SHIFT ENDS AROUND 6 AM.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER PATTERN STILL RESEMBLES AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
SCENARIO WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MODERATE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND PLENTY OF HEATING TO HELP INITIATE THE
STORMS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAYBE ENHANCING THE AREAL COVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME THINKING THAT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MORNING COMPLEX MAY
KEEP AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AT BAY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. TRENDED WITH THE WARMER MAV TEMPS BUT THIS MAY NOT
OCCUR IF CLOUDS HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY.

BEYOND TODAY RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES RISE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION WITH AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS
PRODUCES A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH
SHOULD HELP LOWER THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND REDUCE THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. DOWNSLOPING AFFECT INCREASES
TEMPERATURES WITH THE CENTURY MARK BEING BROKEN OUT WEST AND MID
TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO
STAYING QUITE WARM AS WELL.

MODELS SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES FOR MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT IN TIME TO INCREASE POPS
BEYOND SLIGHT CHANCE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH FROM
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CONVERGENCE AND INTERACTION WITH SEABREEZE
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAY TO DAY CHANGES LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE OF CLOUDS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS TO START
THE DAY. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SEA BREEZE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL
BE ISOLATED...BUT WILL BRING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCED VIS
AND VARIABLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AT 3AM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS AT 12KTS AND SEAS 3
FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD FROM THE ENE. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN
TO LOWER...WHILE PERIOD LENGTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EFFECTS FROM THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF HAVE MOVED WELL INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEGUN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE...SO ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...MAINLY EARLY WEEK BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST...AND MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IN THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH NOON.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WATER AT THE BEACHES AROUND HIGH TIDE AT 614
AM SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED. HIGH TIDE WILL BE 2.5 TO 3 FEET...WHICH MAY RESULT IN RUN
UP ALONG THE BEACHES. RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE AND MAY DECREASE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SWELL COMPONENT DIMINISHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  75  94  78 /  40  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          95  75  96  78 /  40  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            97  74  97  76 /  40  10  20  10
MCALLEN              98  74  99  76 /  40  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  74 102  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  76  88  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
125 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

TXZ248-249-252-240800-
JIM HOGG-ZAPATA-STARR-
125 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT
BUSTAMANTE...ZAPATA...FALCON AND FALCON DAM...UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM.
&&

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR
CAUSE HYDROPLANING. MAKE SURE YOUR HEADLAMPS...TIRES...AND WIPERS ARE
IN GOOD CONDITION. KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT WHICH INCLUDES A
FLASHLIGHT...FLARES...AND SIMPLE HAND TOOLS.

SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE DIE IN WEATHER RELATED AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS
EACH YEAR... MANY DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND WET ROADS.

REMEMBER: VISIBILITY AND TRACTION LEAVE TIME FOR REACTION

64/JS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

TXZ253>257-241130-
INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-HIDALGO-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL
CAMERON-
455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT CAMERON COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT
MERCEDES...LA FERIA...HARLINGEN AND HARLINGEN VALLEY AIRPORT AND
BROWNSVILLE...THROUGH 630 AM CDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

64/JS

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