Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS MOST LOCALES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTN HRS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TX THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SINKS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND PUSH OUT
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LOCAL
WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE REGION. MILD
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER THIS
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SFC
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANDHANDLE TUE AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TX. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY WED WHICH WILL
BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND GIVE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA A CHC FOR SHRAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED INTO THU BEFORE RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY SETS BACK UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LATEST KBRO VWP SHOWS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ CRANKING
ALONG FROM 30 TO 40 KTS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET. THIS
SHOULD MIX DOWN NICELY TO THE SURFACE PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
RESULTING IN A DRASTIC INCREASE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FOR
THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS. WILL INCLUDE ANOTHER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
CURRENT TAF SET THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN
SC DECKS THROUGHOUT TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT WITH THE
REBOUNDING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS.  AFTER SUNSET LATER TODAY...THE LLJ
WILL THEN DECOUPLE ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO WEAKEN.  WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER MENTION OF LLWS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DECOUPLED LLJ AND
THE SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT OVERALL MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT SURFACE OBS FROM NEAR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BUOY020
REPORT THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN WELL INTO OR NEAR SCA LEVELS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRETTY HAZARDOUS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL TIGHTEN THE PGF WITH SURFACE RIDGING
SPRAWLING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SCAS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE CWF DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT STRONG PGF OVER THE MARINE AREAS.
THE WINDS OVER THE BAY WATERS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS THE LLJ DECOUPLES OVER THE INLAND AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL REISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE BRO CWA. WILL ALSO
ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AS THE STRONG PGF WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  64  78  65 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  64  80  66 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            80  64  80  64 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              81  63  81  63 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  63  82  63 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  63  76  63 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248>257.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR TXZ248>257.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-
     135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...57
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-071200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
930 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
FROM 6 AM CST TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY...WHILE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL 9 PM CST
SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONTINUED
FOR THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES WILL
BE NEEDED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
FROM 10 AM CST TO 7 PM CST SATURDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL
OR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TOMASELLI