Red Flag Warning 31, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS84 KBRO 030019
RFWBRO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
719 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROVIDE CRITICAL WILD FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS MONDAY...

.A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
MIX GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AND BRING HUMIDITY DOWN TO OR
BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR RAPID WILD FIRE GROWTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TXZ248>250-252-253-030830-
/O.EXP.KBRO.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-090803T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBRO.FW.A.0029.090803T1700Z-090804T0000Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-HIDALGO-
719 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST WINDS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT THE
20 FOOT LEVEL...SOARING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
WITHIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS INCLUDE SUSTAINED 20 FOOT
WINDS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER AND CURED FUELS...OR THE COMBINATION
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 2 HOURS OR MORE AND
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 25 MPH OR HIGHER WHEN FUELS ARE NOT
CURED.  LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

CASTILLO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...HOW MANY TIMES CAN ONE SAY HOT AND DRY. NEAR RECORD
HEAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK THEN A SLOW DECREASE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.

UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...EXCESSIVE HEAT AND DRY AIR WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO RECORD LEVELS AT MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT VERY LOW WITH 00Z SUN
UPPER AIR RUN INDICATING PWATS OF 1.3 INCHES AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ABOVE 900MB. THIS DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
LATER TODAY AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLIER CREWS ISSUED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED VERY LOW RH. ALTHOUGH
RH LEVELS WILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA 20 FOOT WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WILL DROP THE
WATCH BUT WILL EMPHASIZE THE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE RANGE FIRE DISCUSSION...RFD...AS WELL AS THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY RELAX WITH ONLY DIURNAL
BREEZES DUE TO THE MECHANICS OF THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COOLER GULF AND THE INLAND HEAT LOW.
AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONGTERM...GFS AND ECMWF ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL SHIFT
IN THE 500MB PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. AS THIS SHIFT TAKES PLACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WORKS ITS WAY WEST MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THIS COULD USHER IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
THIS COULD BE THE ONSET OF DAILY SEABREEZE SHOWERS THAT WE NORMAL
SEE IN AUGUST. WILL CONTINUE AND ADD SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES
AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES...GRIDS AND FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS TREND.

&&

.MARINE...AT 2AM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12KTS AND SEAS
4 FEET. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...REACHING THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SCA NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED BUT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IF WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS EXPECTED
WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME MOISTURE CURRENTLY
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION IS SPREADING FROM KMFE NORTHWARD TOWARD
CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KHRL OR
KBRO...AND SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH AT THE 20
FOOT LEVEL AREAWIDE. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
20 PERCENT FOR AREAS WEST OF US 281 AND 30 PERCENT ALONG THE US 77
CORRIDOR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANTLY
ELEVATED THREAT FOR ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RESIDENTS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION DURING THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  96  81 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          98  79  97  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           101  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN             106  81 105  81 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     106  80 106  80 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   91  82  90  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
537 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-031100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
537 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED THREATS FOR ERRATIC WILDFIRE
BEHAVIOR. RESIDENTS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION
DURING THESE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.