Red Flag Warning 30, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY. THE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH DURING THE WEEKEND FOR CONDITIONS TO BE JUST UNDER HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP WATER
OF 1.47 AND A K-INDEX OF 10. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY MONDAY CAUSING POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TYPE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  LONG TERM PROGS
INDICATE POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE.
&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DIURNAL TREND OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE LAGUNA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE OPEN GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  THIS TREND NOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERHAPS
WITH A TOUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY.

AT 8 AM BUOY 20 CARRIED 12 KNOT GUSTING 15 KNOT WIND WITH A 4.6 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHT...AS SEAS REBOUNDED A BIT FROM THE EVENING DROP OFF JUST
BELOW 4 FEET ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST CARRYING LAGUNA MADRE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WITH A LITTLE EXTRA
MIXING DUE TO DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE OPEN BAY WATERS TO BEGIN BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.  GULF WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 10 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH AFTERNOON
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS HOLDING
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR HAS MADE PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF VFR CLEAR
TO START THE MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AT 900 MB EXPECTED...SEE ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED
MVFR CU THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DROPS FURTHER TO FEW
VFR (4 TO 6K FEET) AND JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS.  VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS MORE PASSING CIRRUS FROM UPSTATE
CONVECTION.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING FALLING DEW POINTS
COMPARED WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME GOOD
MIXING WINDS CLOSE TO THE 25 MPH THRESHOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAY NEED TO HOIST A SHORT-FUSED RED FLAG WARNING IF SUSTAINED WINDS
LOOK TO BE REACHING 25 MPH AS HUMIDITY SHOULD EASILY DROP BELOW THE
45 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH CRITICALLY TO EXTREMELY DRY FUELS.
&&

.CLIMATE...ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER RECORD?  AS WAS THE CASE IN JULY WHEN
MCALLEN TIED OR BROKE 23 DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE
GETTING CONFIDENT THAT AUGUST 1ST WILL GO BY THE BOARDS AS
WELL.  INTERESTINGLY...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE THE BROWNSVILLE
RECORD IS ALSO IN JEOPARDY AND HARLINGEN MIGHT NOT BE FAR BEHIND.

FOR MUCH MORE ON THE RECORD HOT JULY FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
VALLEY GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV AND CLICK ON THE
FIRST ARTICLE UNDER THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 1:
BROWNSVILLE   98 IN 2001  TODAYS FORECAST...97
HARLINGEN    103 IN 1960  TODAYS FORECAST...100
MCALLEN      103 IN 1995  TODAYS FORECAST...104
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
504 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-021015-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
504 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES ALONG
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM TODAY FOR
THE LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

ANOTHER DAY OF EXTREME HEAT IS FORECAST WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN
106 AND 110 DEGREES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN VALLEY
REACHING UP TO 112 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACITIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED