Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS84 KBRO 021700
RFWBRO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

TXZ249>257-030000-
/O.CON.KBRO.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-090503T0000Z/
JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT CURED FUELS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF WILDFIRES
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS INCLUDE
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER AND CURED FUELS...OR
THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 2 HOURS
OR MORE AND SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 25 MPH OR HIGHER WHEN
FUELS ARE NOT CURED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

65

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
822 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...WINDS ARE DYING DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AFTER
ANOTHER WINDY DAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WERE NOTED AT SEVERAL SITES TODAY...
INCLUDING BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN AND MCALLEN. A HEAT LOW OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AND FARTHER WEST INTO MEXICO INTERACTED WITH GULF
OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT. AMPLE SUN
PERMITTED GOOD MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FIRED TO
THE WEST OVER MEXICO AND UP TOWARD THE BIG BEND IS A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE THIS EVENING...BUT APPEARS TO EITHER BE WEAKENING OR NOT A
THREAT. RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE ASHORE FROM THE GULF.

THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TOMORROW...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND BORDERLINE RELATIVE HUMIDITY... HAS
PROMPTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. PRESSURE FALLS OVER WEST TEXAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH GULF
HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERATE THE HIGHER WINDS. THE HEAT LOW TO THE
WEST WILL ALSO BE A PLAYER. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ON MONDAY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE DAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009/ ...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY TODAY CAUSING JUST BREEZY
WINDS FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF 1.32 AND A K-INDEX OF 14. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY. A WIND ADVISORY AND A RED FLAG WARNING ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SLIGHTLY LESS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE IN STORE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS
AT BUOY020 THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OFFSHORE THE
LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE SCA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FOR
THE LAGUNA MADRE SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWER TX COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP
AROUND 2500FT. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS WINDS INCREASE
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP
BEFORE 15Z.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  89  79  92 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          75  90  78  93 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            75  93  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              75  95  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      74 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  84  76  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ248>255.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
825 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-021100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
825 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE
FROM 7 AM THROUGH 7 PM CDT SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS ON
SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES AND ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...STARR...BROOKS...HIDALGO AND
KENEDY COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MARTIN/CASTILLO