Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF TODAY
CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO AMPLE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE.  BRO SOUNDING LAST NIGHT SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF .63
AND A K-INDEX OF A -14.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING CAUSING A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR FOR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
CAUSING LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
CAUSING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING CAUSING NORTHWEST WINDS
ONCE AGAIN.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO TO
BE LESS THAT 50 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE LAYER BELOW 500 MB.  THE
MOST MOISTURE IS AROUND THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 19 KNOTS
AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RAISE SCA FOR THE BAY WATERS THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY
RELAX TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TUES NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WED NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THURS NIGHT
SHOULD VEER TO THE EAST FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  68  85  65 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  70  87  63 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            88  68  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              90  71  86  63 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      92  66  88  62 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  68  80  67 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.BRO...SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175 THROUGH 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.
SCA FOR GMZ130-132-135 FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS.........65
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

TXZ248>257-311000-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE WILDFIRE
THREAT MAY BE HIGHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-311000-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
MODERATE ACROSS AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UNSETTLED THROUGH
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND FRONTS ON TUESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CASTILLO