Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT JUST NOW APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER AND STILL
MAKING HEADWAY AROUND 15KTS. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS THINNED
CONSIDERABLY EAST TO WEST...AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SEABREEZE
SOLIDIFYING AND BEGINNING WWD TREK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
NOTED IN SFC OBS CENTERED ROUGHLY NE ZAPATA COUNTY SHOULD GET
PICKED UP SOON BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK LOW AND THE
COLLISION OF THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE SHOULD BE THE 2 FOCI FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD FIRE QUICKLY IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL SHOWERS ALREADY NOTED IN
ZAPATA COUNTY ON RADAR. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING MODERATE HAIL AND BRIEFLY
GUSTY WINDS. ATMOSPHERE WELL SATURATED...WITH AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIVER
WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING...WITH CONTINUING
OVERRUNNING RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT HEATING FROM
OCCURRING...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.
INSTABILITY SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE MORE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE TRIO OF REGIONAL AERODROMES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PILOTS SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG
AND ALSO EXPECT MODERATE TURBULENCE AT THE JUNCTURE OF THE COLD
FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS. VSBYS LESS THAN
1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE AT REGIONAL AERODROMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN +TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 11 KNOTS GUSTING TO
AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS
AROUND NOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
WINDS NORTHEAST AT 20 KTS...BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREAS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE
FOR 34 KNOT GUSTS AND THE ISSUANCE OF MARINE WARNINGS OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY RAINS WILL DRIVE VSBYS TO UNDER 1/2 NM WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MARINE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF TIME AND IF AT ALL
POSSIBLE...POSTPONE ANY TRIPS OVER THE MARINE AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  83  72  87 /  80  70  50  50
BROWNSVILLE          71  85  69  89 /  80  70  50  50
HARLINGEN            72  83  68  89 /  80  70  50  50
MCALLEN              71  81  70  89 /  80  70  50  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  80  68  90 /  80  70  50  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  84  72  86 /  60  70  50  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248-249-252.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-231100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 1 PM
CDT THURSDAY...AND THEN EXCLUSIVELY FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...KENEDY
...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTY FROM 1 PM CDT TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVATIONS OF LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

TOMASELLI