Alert archive / Massachusetts / Wind Advisories in 2009

Wind Advisory 61, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

October 17, 20097 counties in Massachusetts; Newport County, Washington County, Rhode Island

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this wind advisory at Oct 17, 2009, 4:15 PM EDT for 7 counties in Massachusetts; Newport County, Washington County, Rhode Island. It took effect at Oct 18, 2009, 10:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 17, 2009, 4:15 PM EDT (20:15 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 18, 2009, 10:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 19, 2009, 4:00 AM EDT
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Counties Barnstable County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Nantucket County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Newport County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Chatham, MA (KCHH), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Chatham, MA at 12:00Z on 2009-10-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 5 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Chatham, MA at 12:00Z on 2009-10-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -17 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
764 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
54 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS71 KBOX 172015
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...A STRONG NOREASTER WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...

MAZ015-016-018>021-RIZ006-007-180415-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.091018T1000Z-091018T2200Z/
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOSTON...QUINCY...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...NARRAGANSETT...
WESTERLY...NEWPORT
415 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

THIS ADVISORY IS PRIMARILY FROM THE BOSTON AREA SOUTHWARD TO PLYMOUTH
AND THEN ALONG BUZZARDS BAY INTO SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND ADJACENT TO
THE HIGH WIND WATCH.  

NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ON STILL MANY FULLY LEAVED TREES SHOULD CAUSE A FEW BRANCHES TO BREAK
RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. STRONGER WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS CLOSER TO THE GALE CENTER.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE ADVISORY AREA COULD
OCCUR IN TWO OR THREE BURSTS...STARTING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND STILL
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG WIND POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. 

FURTHER NORTH FROM PLYMOUTH TO BOSTON...THE STRONGEST WIND SHOULD
OCCUR DURING MIDDAY OR THE AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-180415-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.A.0003.091018T0600Z-091018T2200Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BLOCK ISLAND
415 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

THIS COVERS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS BLOCK ISLAND RHODE
ISLAND.

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL DEVELOP INTO A STRONG
GALE LATE TONIGHT AND PASS WITHIN 100 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE ISSUED EARLY SUNDAY IF CONFIDENCE 
INCREASES REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 
55 MPH.

CONTINUING THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN THIS ISSUANCE MEANS THAT THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE STRONG
WINDS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS.  THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING
PROPERTY DAMAGE.  IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE
AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

$$

DRAG
6 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS71 KBOX 180131
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
931 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...A STRONG NOREASTER WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-180945-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0003.091018T0600Z-091018T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.091018T1000Z-091019T0200Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BLOCK ISLAND
931 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THIS COVERS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS BLOCK ISLAND RHODE
ISLAND.

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL DEVELOP INTO A
STRONG GALE LATE TONIGHT AND PASS WITHIN 100 MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 50...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON SUNDAY...AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING COULD BE ISSUED IF OVERNIGHT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CHANCES OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS INCREASES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$

MAZ015-016-018>021-RIZ006-007-180945-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.091018T1000Z-091019T0200Z/
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOSTON...QUINCY...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...NARRAGANSETT...
WESTERLY...NEWPORT
931 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY.

THIS ADVISORY IS PRIMARILY FROM THE BOSTON AREA SOUTHWARD TO
PLYMOUTH AND THEN ALONG BUZZARDS BAY INTO SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
ADJACENT TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH.

NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ON STILL MANY FULLY LEAVED TREES SHOULD CAUSE A FEW BRANCHES
TO BREAK RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS CLOSER TO THE GALE CENTER.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE ADVISORY AREA
COULD OCCUR IN TWO OR THREE BURSTS...STARTING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY
AND STILL ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG WIND POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

FURTHER NORTH FROM PLYMOUTH TO BOSTON...THE STRONGEST WIND SHOULD
OCCUR DURING MIDDAY OR THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$
000 
WWUS71 KBOX 180848
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...A STRONG NOREASTER WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

MAZ015-016-018>024-RIZ006>008-181700-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.091018T1400Z-091019T0800Z/
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOSTON...QUINCY...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...NARRAGANSETT...
WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
EDT MONDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 AM EDT MONDAY. 

THIS ADVISORY IS PRIMARILY FROM THE BOSTON AREA SOUTHWARD TO
PLYMOUTH AND THEN ALONG BUZZARDS BAY INTO SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ON STILL MANY FULLY LEAVED TREES SHOULD CAUSE A FEW BRANCHES TO BREAK
RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS CLOSER TO THE
GALE CENTER WHERE THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A PERIOD OF 50
TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EXISTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$
000 
WWUS71 KBOX 181438
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...A STRONG NOREASTER WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

MAZ022>024-182245-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0003.091018T1438Z-091019T0800Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET
1038 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ON STILL MANY FULLY LEAVED TREES WILL CAUSE LARGE LIMBS AND EVEN
A FEW TREES TO FALL. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME.  DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

MAZ015-016-018>021-RIZ006>008-182245-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOSTON...QUINCY...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...NARRAGANSETT...
WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
1038 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. 

THIS ADVISORY IS PRIMARILY FROM THE BOSTON AREA SOUTHWARD TO
PLYMOUTH AND THEN ALONG BUZZARDS BAY INTO SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ON STILL MANY FULLY LEAVED TREES SHOULD CAUSE A FEW BRANCHES
TO BREAK RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ON BLOCK ISLAND AND ON BLUE
HILL WHERE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$

THOMPSON
000 
WWUS71 KBOX 181932
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...A STRONG NOREASTER WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...

MAZ022>024-190345-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET
332 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. 

THE HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 50 TO 55
MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

THE STRONG WINDS ON STILL MANY FULLY LEAVED TREES WILL CAUSE LARGE
LIMBS AND EVEN A FEW TREES TO FALL. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND
OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO
SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

MAZ015-016-018>021-RIZ006>008-190345-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOSTON...QUINCY...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...NARRAGANSETT...
WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
332 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. 

THIS ADVISORY IS PRIMARILY FROM THE BOSTON AREA SOUTHWARD TO
PLYMOUTH AND THEN ALONG BUZZARDS BAY INTO SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

NORTH WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 40 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

THE STRONG WINDS ON STILL MANY FULLY LEAVED TREES WILL CAUSE A FEW
BRANCHES TO BREAK RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES INTO THIS
EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO
BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$
000 
WWUS71 KBOX 190127
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...A STRONG NOREASTER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...

MAZ022>024-190800-
/O.CAN.KBOX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. THIS MAY HELP TO DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER
LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND BRANCHES...POSSIBLY
CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$

MAZ015-016-018-020-021-RIZ006-007-190230-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOSTON...QUINCY...BROCKTON...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...NARRAGANSETT...
WESTERLY...NEWPORT
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...BUT WINDS HIGHER THAN THAT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

MAZ019-RIZ008-190800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...BLOCK ISLAND
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. THIS MAY HELP TO DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER
LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$
000 
WWUS71 KBOX 190358
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1158 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...A STRONG NOREASTER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...

MAZ019-023-RIZ008-190500-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-DUKES MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...VINEYARD HAVEN...
BLOCK ISLAND
1158 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

MAZ022-024-190800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-091019T0800Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
NANTUCKET
1158 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE
STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. THIS MAY HELP TO DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND BRANCHES...POSSIBLY
CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Oct 17, 4:14 PM EDT, 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 17, 4:14 PM EDT, 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL DEVELOP INTO A STRONG GALE
NOREASTER TONIGHT AS IT HEADS FOR CAPE MAY NJ THEN TURNS EAST ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLOWLY DEPARTING MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
WARNINGS AS ISSUING AT 4PM... PLEASE WWA SECTION AT THE END. UPDATED
AFD SECTIONS BY 5 PM.

1PM: ALL BOX
FCST PRODUCTS UPDATED. NO FURTHER UPDATES TIL FINAL PKG AT 405 PM.

NOON: ALL HAZARD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

IN A NUTSHELL... A SERIOUS STORM IS UPCOMING SUNDAY. CONCERNS ARE
INCREASING FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE STATEMENT.

AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONSIDERABLE POWER OUTAGES ALONG THE COAST. ITS
NOT A LOCK ON GUST TRANSFER BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT GUSTS OF 40
KNOTS WILL OCCUR ALL ALONG THE COAST.  PLEASE SEE NPW.

936 AM UPDATE BELOW...

06Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM PERFORMANCE THIS MORNING ON 6 HR QPF ENDING 12Z
WAS BEST. ON WIND TRANSFER...06Z GFS BEST BUT...THINK WE FIGURED A
WAY AROUND THE NAM TRANSFER PERFORMANCE...AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENT...USING
6C INSTEAD OF 9C SST-950MB AND THEN THE NAM WORKS FINE.

06Z NAM IS OMINOUS WITH A 50-55 KT WEST SIDE JET CORE DEVELOPING
/NNE-N FLOW/ PREDICTED BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THAT TRANSLATES OVER CAPE
COD AND THE E MA CW SUNDAY. THIS JET CORE IS DOWN TO 975 MB. ALSO...ITS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN THIS SFC LOW WILL TRACK VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET
SUNDAY EVENING...MODELS HAVE ME THINKING ABOUT 50-75 ME SE OF KACK
WHICH IS ANOTHER 60 MILES CLOSER THAN I THOUGHT YDY.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS GO AROUND AS ANOMALOUS EARLY SEASON
WINTER-LIKE STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS
EVEN 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM WILL START AFFECTED SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MORE ON THAT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

FOR TODAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE SNE WITH A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE DAY MAY ACTUALLY START OUT
SUNNY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PIKE...BUT WAA CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING FROM UPSTATE NY AND NORTHEAST PA. SOME SPOTTY
OCEAN EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT EASTERN MASS FROM TIME TO TIME
TODAY. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAXING OUT ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT VERY GOOD WITH UPCOMING
GALE SYSTEM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE PMDHMD FOR DETAILS
ON THE MODEL TRENDS. OVERALL...THE GFS IS TOO FAR WEST AND TOO FAST.
A GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. WITH
THAT SAID...THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW PROBLEMS TO WORK OUT THIS GO
AROUND. THE FIRST QUESTION IS DO WE GET ANY SNOW...AND WHERE. THE
OTHER ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND COASTAL FLOODING AND WIND. POPS AND QPF
ARE ALSO ISSUES THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.

AS FAR AS POPS GO...THE GFS IS TOO FAST. THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND
MENTIONED ABOVE ACTUALLY ALLOWS FOR A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...ONLY WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE...WITH
HIGHER POPS TOWARD CT AND SE MASS WHERE THEY SHOULD BE CATEGORICAL BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE LOWER TERRAIN WILL SEE RAIN...HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

SUNDAY MORNING IS WHERE THE REAL FUN BEGINS. THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
PREFERRED HERE DUE TO GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNALS IN THE MID LEVEL MASS FIELDS THAT YOU WOULD SEE IN WINTERTIME
BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...IE...A NICE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/
FRONTOGENESIS REGION NEAR/WEST OF A BACK-BENT MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT...ALBEIT NOT INCREDIBLY STRONG. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SETUP...AND RIGHT NOW THIS
APPEARS TO BE EASTERN MASS...EASTERN CT...AND RHODE ISLAND...
ALTHOUGH I WOULDNT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED IF THIS WERE A TAD FURTHER
WEST. FOR THE MOST PART...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PRECLUDE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AND ALLOW FOR A COLD RAIN TO FALL
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IF A MESOSCALE BAND WERE
TO SET UP ON SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE IN FOR A SURPRISE UNDER THE
HEAVIEST ECHOES...IE...A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL...EVEN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

RIGHT NOW...THE PROBS OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
AREN/T GOOD ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH. IF THE MODELS WERE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEAVIER PRECIP OCCURRING WEST OF WHERE THE
CONSENSUS HAS IT NOW...A WATCH MAY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW NH. BUT...SINCE IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS GOING TO OCCUR EAST OF THERE WHERE
BL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...WE THINK THE THREAT OF AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS LESS. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ORH HILLS INTO SW NH. IT WON/T
TAKE ALL THAT MUCH SNOW...MAYBE MID TO HIGH-END ADVISORY LEVELS TO
BRING DOWN BRANCHES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES SINCE IT IS STILL
OCTOBER. AGAIN...THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
IMPOSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THO THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL SLIDE
A BIT TOO FAR EAST FOR HEAVY PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
ISLANDS BUT NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR. AS FAR AS POPS GO ON SUNDAY...
CATEGORICAL...WITH HIGHEST EAST.

WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 45 KT GUSTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  THIS KEEPS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRATIFORM PRECIP FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. ALSO A STIFF NORTHEAST BREEZE WITH NAM
950 MB WINDS AT 40-50 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO STRONG GUSTS IN THAT AREA. THEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS PAST
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD TURN
OUR PRECIP MORE SHOWERY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO
MODES...BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT CATEGORICAL /GREATER THAN 74 PCT/ POPS
STARTING THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF.

MONDAY...
WITH THE UPPER LOW EITHER OVER OR CLOSE TO EASTERN MASS...WE ARE
INCLINED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS /55-74 PCT/ FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER RI AND EASTERN MASS...AND OTHERWISE CHANCE
POPS.  DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY...
WEAK TROF MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THE NAM IS SHARPER WITH THIS FEATURE
THAN THE GFS. A SIMILAR FEATURE...WITHOUT THE SHARPNESS...IS SHOWN
ON THE GLOBAL.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF CLOUDS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE REGION...AND VIRGA OR WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATION
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE DRY.

WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SO A GENERALLY FAIR DAY.  OVERRUNNING
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A ZONAL UPPER FLOW COULD
SEND SOME HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THURSDAY...
THE GFS BRINGS THE HIGH DOWN OVER THE MARITIMES.  WHETHER OR NOT WE
GET A FORMAL BACKDOOR FRONT...THE PRACTICAL EFFECT WILL BE TO TURN
OUR FLOW EASTERLY.  IT WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE SKY
COVER.  BUT NO DISTURBANCE IN THE PARALLEL UPPER FLOW AND WITH NO
SOUTH FLOW TO OVERRUN THIS FEATURE THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP. WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PCT DURING THE DAY...THEN
INCREASE TO 15-25 PCT DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WINDING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS
SHIFTS THE UPPER FLOW EAST AND BRINGS THE MILDER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING BETTER OVERRUNNING AND SO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THICKNESS FIELDS ARE WELL ABOVE
RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS.  ASIDE FROM SOME FLAKES IN THE HILLS FRIDAY
MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS IS THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW SWINGING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERLY UPPER
FLOW.  WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVE UP THE FRONT.  THIS IS A GOOD
WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR US...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS CC AND THE ISLANDS. OTRW VFR
CIGS DEVELOPING FM SW TO NE. NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE
COAST AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER AT NANTUCKET.

TONIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR LATE. G30 KT DEVELOPING LATE
AT ACK.

SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN...OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTH AND EAST COAST WINDS G35-40KT AT TIMES FROM
THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN/SNOW. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 40-50 KNOTS FORECAST JUST OFF THE DECK SO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR BOS- PVD AND THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS...IMPROVING BY THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE INCREASED BY 1-2 FT AS WNA GUIDANCE FROM 06Z CONTINUES TOO LOW
IN THE W ATLC. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT PROBLEM WITH THE FIRST GALE
AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS UPCOMING GALE. SWANNAM YDY HAD LESS OF A
PREDICTED LOW BIAS AFTER 12Z HOURS OF SPINUP FCST.

GALE CENTER DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GALES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS AS GALES PROGRESS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD MARKEDLY AND BECOME
VERY ROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN DIMINISH BY MORNING.  LINGERING WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS ON
MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS
SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET ON THE INNER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL
LINGER AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHT SEAS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTH
WEDNESDAY TO NORTHEAST OR EAST THURSDAY...BUT REMAINING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AT 12Z...COMPARED TO THE 06Z GFS MRPSSE...
BOS IS 0.8 HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WITH A 1 FT SURGE AND 10 FT SEAS.
ACK IS 1.4 HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WITH A 1.5 FT SURGE AND 11 FT SEAS.
PVD IS 0.4 HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WITH A 0.6 SURGE.

THE SURGE PREDICTIONS FOR YDYS GALE HAVE BEEN BIASED TOO LOW BY A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT AND WE WILL ADJUST THE FUTURE MRPSSE UP BY AT
LEAST HALF A FOOT.

IF THE FCST TRENDS CONT AT 18Z... AS PER 06Z NAM...AND THE WAVE FCST
CONTS AS NOW POSTED... WILL PROB CONVERT TO A WARNING FOR A PTN OF
THE AREA. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT HIGHER WINDS E MASS. 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE MAY ASSIST. 03Z SREF PROBS FOR GALE ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
WAS HOPING TO SEE.

COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED MARGINALLY MINOR FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COMES WITH THE
MIDDAY TIDES ON SUNDAY AS THE SECOND GALE CENTER WORKS UP THE COAST.
STORM SURGE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
THIS...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BUILDING SEAS 12 TO 20 FEET
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS WILL CAUSE SPLASHOVER OR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE EAST FACING BEACHES. THE MAIN
THREAT MAY OCCUR FROM SCITUATE AND PLYMOUTH AS WELL AS OUTER CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER RISK OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...PROVIDED THE NE WIND GUSTS
OT 40 TO 45 KNOTS OCCUR TO DRIVE THE SEAS TO PREDICTED VALUES AT THE
TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE. THERE IS TILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE TIME OF THE
MAX SURGE/WIND AND SEAS WITH THE LATE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS TO THE MERE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.

BY MONDAY...THE LOW WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE REGION THAT
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO NORTH...WHICH WILL TEND TO LOWER THE
SEAS AND STORM SURGE.

BEACH EROSION WILL BE A PROBLEM WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND WAVE
ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE SET RECORD LOW MAXIMUM /COLD HIGH/ TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. BOS MISSED
BY A DEGREE.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS...

    LOW     10/16                 10/17           10/18
BOS  45    44/1883        46/1970 AND PREV YRS   45/1898

PVD  44  PREVIOUS 47/1940        42/1970         46/1939

ORH  42  PREVIOUS 46/1961        38/1970         36/1989

BDL  48  TIED 48/1974            47/1978         44/1989

RECORD SNOWFALL SET ON FRIDAY FOR BOTH ORH AND BDL...FIRST TIME
SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT BOTH SITES FOR 10/16. THE 1.4 INCHES
AT ORH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR MID OCTOBER BUT NOT A RECORD OR THE
EARLIEST SNOW IN WORCESTER. PLEASE SEE THE RER/S FOR DETAILS.

DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO TIE OR FALL BELOW THE RECORD LOW
MAXIMUMS TODAY.

MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW MAX RECORDS ON SUNDAY. ORH 36 MAY BE HARD
TO BEAT...BUT THE OTHERS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON CONSTANCY OF PCPN
AND WIND DIRECTION BEING NNE OR N. LOOKS MIGHTY CHILLY CT RIVER WEST.

ANOTHER NOTE...ADJUSTED MELTED PRECIP AT ORH UP TO 0.17 INCHES DUE
TO PROBLEMS MELTING THE WET SNOW IN THE GAUGE. THIS FITS IN WELL
WITH OTHER REPORTS SEEN ON COCORAHS WEBSITE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ015-016-
     018>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ006-007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231>237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-250-251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/EKSTER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 17, 12:43 PM EDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1243 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-020-021-026-NHZ011-012-015-
RIZ001>007-181200-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
1243 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER GALE NOREASTER WILL AFFECT THE COAST VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND AT LEAST MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

HIGH TERRAIN REGIONS FROM HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT
THROUGH THE WORCESTER HILLS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE MONADNOCKS OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 5 INCHES
OF WET SLUSHY SNOW AT SOME POINT DURING THE NOREASTER SUNDAY. THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ENOUGH SNOW TO CAUSE BRANCHES TO BREAK. ROAD
TREATMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 800 FEET.

WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM
BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIZ008-181200-
BLOCK ISLAND RI-
1243 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

ANOTHER GALE NOREASTER WILL AFFECT THE COAST VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND AT LEAST MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ007-015-016-019-181200-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
1243 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER GALE NOREASTER WILL AFFECT THE COAST VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND AT LEAST MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL OF 45 MPH WINDS AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES EXISTS
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ022>024-181200-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
1243 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER GALE NOREASTER WILL AFFECT THE COAST VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND AT LEAST MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231>237-254>256-181200-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1243 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-250-251-181200-
BOSTON HARBOR-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1243 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 17, 4:42 AM EDTCoastal Flood WatchBOXBarnstable, Dukes, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth and 1 more11 hr
Oct 17, 4:53 AM EDTGale WarningBOX53 hr
Oct 17, 3:59 PM EDTCoastal Flood WarningBOXBarnstable, Dukes, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth and 1 more24 hr
Oct 17, 3:59 PM EDTCoastal Flood StatementBOXBristol, Kent, Newport, Providence, Washington13 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in Massachusetts, 2009Wind Advisories in Rhode Island, 2009Every wind advisory in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.