High Surf Advisory 7, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

000 
WHUS41 KBOX 171527 AAA
CFWBOX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1127 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

MAZ022-024-172330-
/O.CON.KBOX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-090918T0000Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
1127 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

THIS HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS FOR THE EAST FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD.

LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL WILL ONLY BE AROUND 2 FEET...BUT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND WAVES WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET JUST OFFSHORE. THE HIGH
SURF WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR
THE EAST FACING BEACHES OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD.

IN ADDITION...VIEWERS OF LARGE SURF SHOULD BE IN SAFE AREAS WELL AWAY
FROM POSSIBLE BREAKING WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE
THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH CAN SWEEP A PERSON INTO THE WATER
FROM WHAT MAY SEEM TO BE A SAFE VIEWING AREA. FALLING INTO THE
ROILING AND SOMETIMES ROCKY WATERS CAN RESULT IN INJURY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RIP CURRENT...SOMETIMES MISTAKENLY CALLED AN UNDERTOW...IS A
STRONG BUT NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE BEACH TO THE
SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER AND
EXHAUST AN INDIVIDUAL TRYING TO SWIM AGAINST IT.

IF YOU ARE A POOR SWIMMER AND ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL OUT OF ITS PULL.  ANOTHER MEANS OF
ESCAPE FOR THOSE WHO ARE GOOD SWIMMERS IS TO RIDE THE CURRENT OUT
BEYOND THE SURF ZONE WHERE THE RIP CURRENT DISSIPATES...THEN SWIM
TOWARD SHORE OUTSIDE THE EFFECT OF THE NARROW RIP CURRENT.

HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND SWIM ONLY AT GUARDED
BEACHES.  WATCH YOUR CHILDREN.  BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS
AND JETTIES WHERE RIP CURRENTS CAN BE ENHANCED.

&&

$$

NOCERA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
203 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO MILD WEATHER FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK IN FOR A PLEASANT...SEASONAL WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LEVEL DRYING PUSHING SWD FROM THE NE WILL KEEP SHOWER THREAT
MAINLY SW OF SNE OVERNIGHT BUT HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM HFD-
BID.

WHILE THE AIR ALOFT IS DRYING OUT TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST SO EXPECT PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE NEW ENG. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE STORM.

MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED...40S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 50S ON SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCD COLD POOL SWINGS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...BUT SINCE IT IS MORE SHALLOW
THAN TODAY AND SINCE THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY...
EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN TODAY. DESPITE THE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
60S FOR HIGHS. NOTICED THAT THE MAV THREE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR BOSTON KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR 58 DEGREES...BUT FELT THAT THIS WAS
A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC.

RIP CURRENT PROGRAM GAVE ONLY A MODERATE RISK FOR THURSDAY. BUT WITH
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELLS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FT...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH RISK LATER THU OR THU
NIGHT AND THE CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

A QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT 50 TO 55 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  THEN THE
GFS MOVES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE MUCH MORE
QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF.  BECAUSE IT MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...IT ALSO INDICATES SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER.  BASED ON THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND ITS
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE
ECMWF FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  WESTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DRY THE
LOWER LEVELS OUT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A DRY DAY.  COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.  HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THIS WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY /HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S/ AND WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A WARM UP SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...DISCREPANCIES START
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS.  WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY AT THIS POINT...THEN
INCREASE POPS TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH TODAY...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST 14-18Z. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS TO 25 KT ACK WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT LATE NIGHT PATCHY IFR FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY...VFR. BAND OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING SWD ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS DURING AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
REACHING S COAST TOWARD EVENING. CHC AFTERNOON SHOWER NORTH OF THE
PIKE. INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WITH G20-25 KT LIKELY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REISSUED SCA FOR BUZZARDS BAY AND VINEYARD SOUND AS WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 KT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
THU MORNING. SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED ON OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS BUT
WINDS BELOW SCA OVER NE WATERS AS SFC RIDGE NOSES SWD.

OFFSHORE STORM MAY KEEP G25 KT OVER OUTER SE WATERS THROUGH THU.

SEAS UP TO 7 OR 8 FT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SWELLS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAVE LED
TO THE CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL MAY
REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...SEAS AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY...REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/GAF
MARINE...KJC/RLG/GAF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-172015-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
410 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SIGNIFICANT EAST SWELL ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR EAST FACING BEACHES. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-172015-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
410 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.