Gale Watch 9, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY INTO THU...WITH A
PERIOD OF BLUSTERY UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THU EVENING. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS SLIPPED NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT BOSTON. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S AT PROVIDENCE. DENSE FOG BRIEFLY FORMED ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST BUT THEN LIFTED. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE OVERCAST...DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS IT HAS BECOME MAINLY A MID AND HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST. THE
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS BECOME VERY PATCHY. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDINESS RETURNS FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUD FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH NAM...NOT GFS...SINCE GFS
HAS BOSTON AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOCKED IN WITH LOW
OVERCAST ALL DAY LONG WHICH DOES NOT MATCH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH IS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN NORTHERN MA AND IN SOUTHERN
NH. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WARMING TO +10.5C
OVER SOUTHEAST MA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRED IN THE BALTIMORE
AREA YESTERDAY AND TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 55 TO 58 RANGE THERE.
HAVE RAISED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST MA AND PART OF RI FOR TODAY...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE
NEW NAM MET GUIDANCE AND TO NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE FARTHER INLAND. SOME OF
THE WARMING WILL GO INTO MELTING OF THE SNOW WHICH WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH FARTHER THAN WHAT WAS JUST STATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY...THEN ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. CORRESPONDINGLY...
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
NARROW BAND OF TOTAL TOTALS INDICES NEAR 50...SHOWALTER INDICES FROM
0 TO -2... AND K INDICES FROM 30 TO 33 MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION
TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT TYPICAL TO
FORECAST THUNDER IN MID FEBRUARY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS IS A
STRONG SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS FROM 1-2KFT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WE MAY SEE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TO 30
TO 40 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... OR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE MAIN
WIND THREAT WILL BE ON THURSDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN THE MODELS...OFF THE NJ COAST...AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO STEAL OUR THUNDER...AS IT WERE. IT MAY FOCUS THE ENERGY THERE
INSTEAD OF OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR EVOLUTIONS OF THE
MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.  THEREAFTER...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
START TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT.  THE MAIN PROBLEMS ARE THEIR HANDLING
OF A HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
AS WELL AS THE AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...THEN
SWITCHED TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...TO MINIMIZE THE DIFFERENCES.

MAIN CONCERNS THURSDAY WILL BE ANY LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING...AND THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA.  DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK SINCE IT IS
MORE THAN 24 HOURS AWAY.  PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHERN NH.

GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED
OUT THOUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF A STORM FROM THE PLAINS
PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOMETIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING A HIGH PRESSURE TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG WAS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
MVFR/LOCAL IFR VSBYS STILL EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BUT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MANY AREAS
WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IF ANY. THUS...WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIG TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE.

TONIGHT...MVFR CIG DEGRADE TO IFR CONDS IN SCT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS SHOWERS.
ALSO HAVE CHANCE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY SW WINDS 27-37KTS LATE AT NIGHT SE MASS AND
RI. POSSIBLE LLWS CAPE AND ISLANDS. CLEARING POSSIBLE TWD SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MARGINAL MVFR/VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.  STILL EXPECT LOTS OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY NE MASS WATERS. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTN.

TONIGHT...STRONG SCA. POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE GUSTS LATE. WINDS
SHIFTING FROM S TO WSW LATE. CHANCE OF TSTMS LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
UP TO 10 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND 5 TO 10 FT OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. POSTED A GALE WATCH FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD BE REFINED BY FUTURE SHIFTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE FORCE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

FRIDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...TO EVEN MARGINAL GALE
FORCE...WIND GUSTS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS AS A RESULT OF
GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NOT MUCH STANDS OUT AT THIS POINT. SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND TIMING ISSUES.

&&

...HYDROLOGY...

OPTED TO NOT GO FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO BREAKUP
OF RIVER ICE. THE ASHUELOT RIVER REPORTEDLY HAS A LOT OF RIVER ICE
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 50 IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND
WITH ONLY 0.5 INCHES OR LESS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED... THINK IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ICE TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP. WILL EVALUATE
GUIDANCE FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER LATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     MAZ016>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     RIZ002>008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHB
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...MHB
AVIATION...GAF/MHB
MARINE...GAF/MHB
HYDROLOGY...GAF

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