Gale Watch 16, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL DRIFT INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MON NIGHT THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC TUE AND WED. ANOTHER
STORM MAY MOVE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOMETIME LATE FRI OR SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS STARTED TO THIN OUT...WHILE LOWER CLOUD
COVER HAS BECOME CONFINED TO E SLOPES OF BERSKHIRES AND CT RIVER
VALLEY IN W/NW FLOW AND WILL RETREAT FARTHER INLAND TODAY.

FLURRIES REPORTED EARLIER AT KPSF BUT TREND WILL BE FOR ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.

STRONG NW GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AS SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET TEMPS WHICH OFFERS MAXES OF 55-60 EXCEPT
COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

MON...DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EWD FROM THE GT LAKES WITH
ASSOCD SFC LOW MOVING INTO NEW YORK WITH POSSIBLE SECONDARY DEVT
NEAY NYC LATE IN THE DAY.  SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT.

STRONG INSTABILITY BURST DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG WHERE SCT TSTMS A GOOD
BET.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT +2 TO +3SD PWATS INTO REGION WITH
LLJ/SE INFLOW NEAR +3SD SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  RAINFALL 0.5 TO
1.0 WITH LOCALLY 2 POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS.

WE THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS HEAVY QPF AXIS AND PREFER
THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/RGEM/UKMET WITH AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
CONFINED CLOSER TO I95 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY ARE LOCATED.  SREF/GEFS POPS FOR GREATER THAN 1
ALSO CONFINED TO COASTAL PLAIN.

WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NWD ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
APPROACH 60 DEGREES HERE LATE MON..BUT TEMPS PROBABLY REMAINING IN
THE 40S IN THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND ADVSY CRITERIA LATE MON ACROSS SE COASTAL
MA AND CAPE COD WHERE LLJ AND MILDER TEMPS OVERLAP LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO INTERIOR MON NIGHT/TUE AS UPPER
LOW TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. 00Z GFS/ECMWF
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SREF/GEFS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA/SW NH AS WELL BUT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

STRONG S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS AS MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL TO NW OF
REGION. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY...THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES ON SOUTH COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY TUE.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL WED/THU AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AID IN AT LEAST SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDINESS...BUT WE DO NOT REALLY HAVE A DECENT FOCUS TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGIME...ASIDE FROM WEAK SHORT WAVES
WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. WENT BELOW GMOS POPS
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO SAT. 00Z GFS
REMAINS FASTEST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS...BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH FRI
WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST WHEN COMPARED WITH 00Z ECMWF AND GEFS.
TOUGH TO GET INTO DETAILS BY DAYS 6/7...BUT THIS TIME MODELS WANT TO
TAKE SURFACE LOW OFF COAST AND BRING YET ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH CEILINGS AOA 10KFT THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS
KBAF. GUSTY W/NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA 10KFT
THROUGH 12Z MON...THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO 4-5KFT BY END OF
PERIOD KBDL.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN KBDL 14Z MON AND REACH KBOS 16Z WITH MVFR LIKELY AT
ONSET. FURTHER LOWERING TO IFR EXPECTED AFTER 18Z MON WHEN SCATTERED
TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY KPVD KFMH KHYA KACK. LLWS POSSIBLE
KFMH KHYA KACK MON AFTERNOON WITH 60KT S WINDS NEAR FL020.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS. LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY
KFMH KHYA KACK WITH 60KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT FL020.

TUE...MVFR CIGS. GUSTY SW WINDS TO 35KT MAINLY KFMH KHYA KACK.

WED AND THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE.  SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR G30 KT...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.  SCA
EXTENDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS SEAS UP TO 5 FT MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF ACK
IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY...SE WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE.  LLJ TO 60 KT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS BELOW GALE AS
+12C 925 MB AIR MOVES OVER COLDER OCEAN.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL NW OF WATERS EXPECTED
TO BRING INCREASING S/SW WINDS. GALES POSSIBLE ON WATERS S AND E OF
CAPE COD WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 14 FT. SCA ELSEWHERE.

WED AND THU...PROBABLE SCA. SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AS WE REMAIN
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME SUBSIDING
ESPECIALLY ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
AND MIDDLETOWN...FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING IF
CONFIDENCE IN MINOR FLOODING INCREASES BASED UPON LATEST NERFC
FORECAST.

THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING IS BASED UPON RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT
WHICH HAS ALREADY STARTED TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN MAINSTEM CONNECTICUT
RIVER.

RAINFALL MON INTO MON NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RISES ON THE LOWER CONNECTICUT THROUGH
MID WEEK. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO
LOWER FLOWS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON CONNECTICUT RIVER. MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD RAINFALLS FOR MONDAY APRIL 6

BOS 1.60 1987
PVD 2.16 1958
BDL 1.45 1958
ORH 1.97 1920

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     254-255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

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