Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRESENTLY OVER THE DENVER AREA.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.  WITH MORE RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING...AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AFTER THE EVENING SHOWERS
DISSIPATE.  VERY LITTLE SEEMS TO BE CHANGING FOR MONDAY.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE.  AND THE
WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF
THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH.  THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.  MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO MAX TEMP
FORECAST FOR MONDAY SHAVES A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS VALUES.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE GOING
ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT WAVE PASSES OVER THE STATE. JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SINK SOUTH
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH
WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO COLORADO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW
POINTS ARE FORECASTED TO HANG IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS
INDICATE THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH CAPES UP TO
1000 J/KG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARMING ALOFT
WHICH MAY CAP CONVECTION. FOR NOW TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ALL
CONVECTION WILL BE CAPPED OR NOT. APPEARS A FEW STORMS WILL FORM AND
THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY
CAUSING THE FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT WESTERLY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL COOL OFF ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN MODELS SHOW MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
CAPPED...HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS THIS FAR OUT AND WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE FRONT
RANGE AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH HVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.  AFTER SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY FORM WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
PSBL FROM 06Z-14Z.  MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

KDRBY/MEIER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
255 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             LAKEWOOD                39.70N 105.11W
06/14/2009  M1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FREDIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
303 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             2 WSW WESTMINSTER       39.87N 105.09W
06/14/2009  M1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0253 PM     HAIL             LAKEWOOD                39.70N 105.11W
06/14/2009  M1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FREDIN

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