Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
327 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF AREA AND SEEMS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE WHICH WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW
MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAINS. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
30S...STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MEAGER RAINFALL. SOME
40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE. STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL...WITH FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 16000 FEET. SO MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE OUTFLOW WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS AREA AFTER 04Z...SHOULD SEE STORMS END AT
THAT TIME...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ON TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN
ACROSS COLORADO AS CENTER OF RIDGE SITS OVER NEW MEXICO. LATEST NAM
SHOWING LESS MOISTURE ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY VERSUS EARLIER
RUNS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST
CORNER. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW WEAK SURGE MOVING ACROSS PLAINS AROUND
17Z...WITH WEAK EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL...THERE
ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN BOTH MODELS...IN PARTICULAR
THE AMOUNT OF CAPE. NAM STILL SHOWING AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG
FRONT RANGE. GFS INDICATING MUCH LESS CAPE...RANGING FROM 100 J/KG
ALONG FOOTHILLS TO AROUND 1000 J/JG NORTHEAST CORNER. WITH THIS MUCH
DISCREPENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS FOR
NOW GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE LOCATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILE...SO STORMS TO PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
GUIDANCE INDICATING LITTLE AFFECT FROM THE SURGE...SHOWING
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS
IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS PLAINS...LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...THEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL KICK NORTHEASTWARD LOWERING
HEIGHS OVER COLORADO AND SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS THE DRIEST WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT SO CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE AT A MINIMA. RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED. MAINTAINED LOW POPS AS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WHILE FURTHER WESTWARD IT SHOULD GET HOT
ENOUGH TO POP A LIMITED AMOUNT OF WEAK CONVECTION. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON THURSDAY BUT MAINLY HIGH LEVELS
AND COULD STILL BE MAINLY CAPPED. WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH COULD HELP THINGS ALONG LATE IN THE DAY.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE
LIMITED. WITH CURRENT TIMING FRIDAY WOULD HAVE SOME MOISTURE ON THE
TAIL OF THE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF US...PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON THIS DAY. THEN DRIER AGAIN BEHIND THIS AND SUN MAY OFFSET
THE COOLING. SUBTLE MOISTENING TREND LIKELY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THIS POINT STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY. GRASSES
WILL START TO DRY AND WE WILL SEE INCREASING FIRE DANGER...IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FIRST WHERE THE DRYING PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDER
WAY. PLAINS ARE STILL GREEN AT THIS TIME.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THROUGHOUT...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. NIGHTS MAY BE NEED TO BE EVEN WARMER IN
FOOTHILLS AREAS OR LATE IN THE WEEK IF THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. BASES OF
THESE STORMS AROUND 8000-9000 FEET AGL...SO VISUAL LANDING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE THREAT OF STORMS SHOULD END BY 04Z.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS REGION AFTER
17Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS TO 40 KTS THE
MAIN THREAT. BASES OF THE STORMS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

DL/CMG

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