Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...FIRST SHORTWAVE HAD MOVED INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO...
REMNANTS OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF CWA. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND WAVE KEPT AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIMITED TO MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE WHICH WAS NOTED BY SATELLITE OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO. AT
THE SURFACE...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTING FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WAVE OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO TO PROVIDE
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CWA...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A RESULT. FRONT
MOVING ACROSS PLAINS SHOULD PROVIDE SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY TO BE ON THE INCREASE...
BUT WILL BE LIMITED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING BEST SHEAR AND CAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST
CORNER...LESS AS ONE MOVES TOWARD FOOTHILLS. SPC HAS RECENTLY HOISTED
SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR LOGAN...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES.
STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND.
ELSEWHERE...GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND EIGHT
TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS PLAINS...SO HEAVY RAIN NOT A CONCERN. ALL
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT ONCE THE LAST WAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE CWA. LATEST RUC SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
FEEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE WILL LIMIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOISTURE RATHER SHALLOW. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PLAINS...PARTICULARY ALONG AND NEAR FRONT RANGE.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. ALL THIS ALREADY IN
GRIDS AND FORECAST...WILL LEAVE ALONE. ON TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO BE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF COLORADO...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH IN AND NEAR
FOOTHILLS. LITTLE IF ANY QG ASCENT SHOWN BY MODELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TO RELY ON INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE. CURRENT
LOW POPS FOR MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS STILL LOOKING
REASONABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS A BIT TOO STABLE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AWAY FROM FRONT RANGE FOR STORMS. AS FOR TEMPS...THICKNESS
PROGS AS WELL AS GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE...WILL CHANGE
LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...DEEP NWLY FLOW ON THE EAST FACING SIDE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ARE PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE REGION FM TIME
TO TIME BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
GRADUALLY BECOMES DRIER AND MID-LEVELS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
STABLE WITH WARMING ALOFT. WARMING ALSO SHOWS UP AT GROUND LEVEL
WITH HIGH PLAINS TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO LOW POPS PRESENTLY IN THE FCST...
WITH THE HIGHER LOW POPS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.  BY THE WEEKEND
MAY SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN T-STORM ACTIVITY WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS MAY ALSO LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 40 KTS POSSIBLE AT AREA
AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO AFFECT ILS APPROACHES. SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY 01Z...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS LOW CLOUDS IN THE
10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

D-L/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1043 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2009

COZ030>051-211200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1043 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. KEEP IN MIND...ALL THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCE LIGHTNING WHICH CAN POTENTIALLY EXTEND UP TO 10 MILES FROM
THE CORE OF THE STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

D-L/BAKER