Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL SURGING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVES OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH ARE PROJECTED
TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY BEGUN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ALREADY AROUND AND INCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CURRENT CAPES VALUES OF 1200 TO 1600
J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AFTER 6
PM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH INGREDIENTS
STILL LINING UP FOR A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE SOUNDING IS
AT 16K FT. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME COOLING ALOFT AROUND 00Z
THAT WILL HELP HAIL FORMATION. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A
PROBLEM WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. STORM MOVEMENT WILL
BE 10 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...BUT ANY TRAINING OF STORMS COULD CAUSE A LOCALIZED
CONCERN FOR FLOODING.  THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL NOT EXIT THE AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTH FRIDAY TO KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE...HOWEVER NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
EVENING AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS OVER THE PLAINS BELOW 35 PERCENT.
CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT SHEAR VALUES DO NOT
LOOK ALL THE IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS WEAK LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHT DRYING OCCUR.

ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECHARGE NICELY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
MORNING SUNSHINE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.  THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT AT THE
SAME TIME THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT BACKING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD ENHANCE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
STORM COVERAGE IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE.  DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF
THIS COOLER SURGE...NORTHEAST CORNER COULD STABILIZE MORE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS OUT THERE.  STILL MANY
QUESTIONS WITH REGARD TO ALL THE DETAILS BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS
ARE WARRANTED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS AND NICE THETA-E
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY SO THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AND PERHAPS INCREASE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONGER SHEAR.  MEANWHILE...
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 800-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS
EACH DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTH OF STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY AND WARM SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THEN IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SERIOUS HEAT AND ONLY ISOLATED...AT MOST...AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POPS UP ACROSS COLORADO.  HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL HOLDS ON BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. GUSTY OUT FLOW
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...UP TO INCH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50
KNOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTER 20Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1031 AM MDT THU JUL 02 2009

COZ030>051-031200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1031 AM MDT THU JUL 02 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH A
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...GOOD MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA. THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE SLOW MOVING OUT OF THE STATE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY OVER
THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM.

KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH

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