Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS85 KBOU 090023
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
623 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2009

COZ214-216-090130-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090309T0000Z/
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
INCLUDING...ELEVEN MILE CANYON RESERVOIR...FAIRPLAY...GUFFEY...
HARTSEL...LAKE GEORGE...SOUTH PARK...BAILEY...CENTRAL CITY...
EVERGREEN...GEORGETOWN...IDAHO SPRINGS...NORTHERN RAMPART RANGE...
TARRYALL...WESTCREEK
623 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES
...214...216.

AT SUNSET WINDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO CLIMB TO ABOVE 15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES DROP
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. 

$$

GIMMESTAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
THEN BECOME MORE WSW BY TONIGHT.  850-700 MB TEMPS WILL ROSE AROUND
8 DEGREES AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL OVER MOST OF NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60 EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WHERE HIGHS MAY ONLY
REACH AROUND 50.  MEANWHILE A WEAK MTN WAVE WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDDAY.  ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LOW TODAY WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS SO FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ONE.

.LONG TERM...00Z AND 06Z MDL RUNS CONTINUE TO SWING THE UPPER TROUGH
NOW CARVING OUT OVER THE PAC NW/COLUMBIA RVR BASIN EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKY ON MONDAY AND ERLY TUESDAY. BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. BUT AS THE 700-500 MB TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SWLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS W-NWLY ADVECTING A
FAIR AMT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE N-CNTRL MTNS AND HIGH
VLYS OF COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE SATURATED LAYER UP NEAR
500MBS AND WLY 750-600MB MAX WNDS OF 25-40KTS AT 06Z/TUE. MODEL
STORM TOTAL SNOW AMTS IN THE NRN MTNS BY 18Z/TUE GENERALLY IN THE
4-7 INCH RANGE...WITH UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE PARK AND GORE RANGES UP AROUND RABBIT EARS PASS. LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL NOT AS OPTIMISTIC WITH SNOW AMTS. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WX HIGHLIGHTS. ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
LONG ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AS THIS IS SYSTEM WILL BE
QUICK MOVER WITH STG DOWNWARD FORCING AND MID-LEVEL STABILITY NOT
TOO FAR BEHIND THE 700-500 MB TROUGH AXIS. AS THIS TROUGH SWINGS OUT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING TWO THINGS HAPPEN. FIRST MLDS
SHOW SPOTTY QPF WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING SWRD THRU
NERN COLORADO IN THE MORNING. LOW POPS SEEM IN ORDER HERE. BY MIDDAY
WITH THIS FNTL BNDRY WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...SFC-600MB
FLOW TURNS NWLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING THRU THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS UP ALONG THE WY BORDER AS WELL AS IN AND
NEAR THE NRN FNT RANGE FOOTHILLS MAY APPROACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA
DURING THE PD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT MODEL RUN HANDLES
THIS AS A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLD SFC
HIGH HANGING AROUND. BY THURSDAY NWLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN WHICH
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THIS CHILLY AIR AND BEGIN THE WARMUP EXPECTED THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS THIS MORNING MAY SHIFT
TO A MORE NWLY COMPONENT BY 20Z AND THEN BECOME SSW AFT 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

RPK/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1054 AM MDT SUN MAR 08 2009

COZ030>051-091200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1054 AM MDT SUN MAR 08 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS OF COLORADO ON MONDAY.  LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE TO ELEVATE THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER
OVER PARK COUNTY AND THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA.

SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY.  STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...COLDER
TEMPERATURES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS
WHERE WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH