Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WGUS75 KBOU 052337
FFSBOU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
537 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

COC005-060045-
/O.CON.KBOU.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-090906T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ARAPAHOE CO-
537 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL ARAPAHOE COUNTY...

AT 535 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING THE FLASH FLOOD HAD DISSIPATED. 

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
EASTERN CENTENNIAL AND SOUTHERN AURORA.

AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATE THAT 2.25 INCHES OF RAIN FELL FROM 
THIS STORM BETWEEN 420 PM AND 500 PM.  REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING 
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE AREAS AROUND ARAPAHOE ROAD AND LIVERPOOL 
STREET.  RAPID RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG PINEY CREEK BETWEEN ARAPAHOE 
ROAD AND CHERRY CREEK RESERVOIR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY AS THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A
FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR
VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO
ESCAPE RISING WATER CLIMB TO HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 10489 3964 10488 3965 10485 3963 10468
      3957 10469

$$


DANKERS

000 
WGUS75 KBOU 060032
FFSBOU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
632 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

COC005-060037-
/O.CAN.KBOU.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-090906T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ARAPAHOE CO-
632 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL
ARAPAHOE COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTENNIAL AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF AURORA 
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED.  AN AUTOMATED RAIN GAGE NEAR 
THE INTERSECTION OF ARAPAHOE ROAD AND LIVERPOOL STREET RECORDED 2.40 
INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 420 PM AND 520 PM WITH 2.25 INCHES FALLING IN 
A 40 MINUTE PERIOD.  REPORTS OF FLOODED STREETS IN EASTERN 
CENTENNIAL...FOXFIELD AND SOUTHERN AURORA WERE RECEIVED AS THE RAIN 
WAS OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED 
THROUGH 630 PM.    

LAT...LON 3958 10489 3964 10488 3965 10485 3963 10468
      3957 10469

$$


DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...WEAK VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE POSITIONED SQUARELY OVER OVER THE FCST REGION WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED AND BECOME SWLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS ERN COLORADO.
THE FEW WEAK STORMS PULSING OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DVD WILL
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH VERTICAL SHEAR ALMOST NON-EXISTENT.
STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...CG LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL. CAN/T RULE OUT A HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCER AS SLOW AS STORMS ARE MOVING. OTHERWISE SE LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WHERE THE AIRMASS REMAINS
STRONGLY CAPPED.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE AN END TO HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE MTNS 10-15KT
SELY BNDRY FLOW WILL AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
TO SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
MOST OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS EAST OF A CHEYENNE-GREELEY-SIMLA(ELBERT
CTY) LINE. MODELS SHOW THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU AT LEAST
MID- MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
PUSHED ALONG BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH THE NAM SHOWS PASSING OVER
THE N-CNTRL MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN ALLOWS STRONGER SWLY FLOW TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE MOSTLY
AT MID-LEVELS UP FROM THE 4-CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THRU THE
DAY. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND INCREASING MID/UPR-LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED T-STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS
POPPING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES BEFORE THE NOON HOUR. FASTER STORM
MOTIONS WOULD NORMALLY REDUCE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE
INCREASE IN PW VALUES MAY COUNTER ACT THIS...ESPLY ON WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FACING MTN SLOPES. EAST OF THE MTNS...MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AIRMASS APPEARS QUITE CAPPED...BUT WITH STG SFC HEATING
AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT CIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DISAPPEARS
ALLOWING ANY STORMS MOVING NEWRD OFF THE FOOTHILLS TO HOLD TOGETHER
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS STILL DO
NOT SEE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVENING/SEE BELOW.

.LONG TERM...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
CO ON SUN EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE WESTERLY FLOW TO
STEER A FEW STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A WEAK
CAP IN PLACE...SO POPS OVER THE FAR PLAINS NO MORE THAN A 10 PERCENT
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FURTHER WEST. LITTLE CHANGE ON MONDAY
WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPR LVLS WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENING STORMS.
A BIGGER CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SENDS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS IS FASTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THEN YESTERDAYS RUNS. THERE IS A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...AS THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN THE
GFS. WILL GO A BIT HIGHER POPS IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALL WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE
ON THE AMOUNT OF THE RIDGE/TROF AMPLIFICATION AND PLACEMENT. FOR NOW
WILL JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER WITH A CYCLONE
WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE EUROPEAN IS SLOWER AND NOT AS AMBITIOUS WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS UP NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER METRO
AREA SLIGHTLY GREATER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BAKER/ENTREKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1114 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2009

COZ030>051-061200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1114 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES NOT
TOO LONG AFTER MIDDAY WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN QUITE
LOW IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH NO
STORMS ANTICIPATED EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND
DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS OVER PARK AND SUMMIT
COUNTIES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN FORM ON THE PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF A
GREELEY TO ELBERT LINE. AREAS AROUND LIMON AND OUT NEAR THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF STATE COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO UNDER A
QUARTER MILE BY MORNING.

VERY LIGHT WIND ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SQUARELY OVER THE REGION WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. VISIBILITIES MAY
FALL TO UNDER A QUARTER MILE IN SPOTS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BAKER/ENTREKIN