Wind Advisory 19, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERING NE
OREGON AS OF 230 PM WITH MANY STATIONS GUSTING 30-45 MPH...1 IN 10
GUST 53-55 KTS...I.E. AS HIGH AS 63 MPH FOR A RIDGE AROUND 4K FT
MSL. FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS SOUTHERN OREGON THIS EVENING WITH
SIMILAR PEAK GUSTS BRIEFLY 45 MPH FOR AT LEAST HALF THE ZONES SO
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THERE 0-6Z. OVER SW IDAHO...3-9Z
FROPA...THE FRONT CONFRONTS NIGHTTIME INPUT ON STABILITY BUT CAA
AND TERRAIN PARALLEL TO WINDS LOOK TO OVERCOME THAT. W TO NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW SO EAST OF BOISE BRIEFLY EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 45 MPH
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ON THE
IDAHO SIDE AS WELL. QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS
TO BRING AROUND A TEN OF AN INCH OF PRECIP TO THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY AND MUCH OF SW IDAHO...A QUARTER TO LOCALLY TWO-THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN MOUNTAINS. RAIN SHADOW /0.01-0.05 AT BEST/ WITH THIS FLOW LOOKS
TO BE THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER
WA AND OREGON DIVE SOUTH/SE FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR COLD NORTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOOK TO COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
MORNING. LACK OF SNOW COVER AT METAR SITES LOOKS TO KEEP LOWS WELL
AWAY FROM RECORDS EXCEPT AT BURNS...SIMILAR TO THE MORNING OF THE
25TH WHEN ITS LOW WAS NEAR RECORD VALUES IN THE TEENS. COLD
PATTERN STARTS THE LONGER TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED BUT THIS IS THE FIRST
MODEL RUN WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY.  WITH THIS IN MIND STILL HAVE LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS.  WILL WAIT FOR A FEW MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASES.  EVEN
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS...THERE IS STILL
SOME MINOR TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FOR THURSDAY BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG TO THE SOUTH
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL KEEP A SMALL MENTION OF POPS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AS MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  WITH
THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.  FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ZONAL
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.  MODELS INDICATE SOME BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WILL KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  AREAS OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KBKE/KBNO AROUND 00Z...KMYL/KBOI AROUND 03Z AND
KTWF/KJER AROUND 07Z.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY 20-45 KTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     IDZ014-IDZ015-IDZ016-IDZ028-IDZ029.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
     MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT FOR ORZ061-ORZ063.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA/DD
AVIATION.....JA

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