Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE PAC NW FOR SOME TIME NOW WILL FINALLY
BE PUSHED EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT GO
QUIETLY. IT WILL ALSO NOT GO IN ONE PIECE. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ONE PIECE WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE A SECOND PIECE WILL HANG BACK. THIS FIRST SHOT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM. WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH AN
AIRMASS AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. WITH CONTINUED
INSTABILITY AND ALL THIS MOISTURE...WE HAVE PUT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BACK UP FOR THE 18Z TO 06Z PERIOD...THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAIN TIME ZONE. ONCE AGAIN...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH TERRAIN...WILL END UP DETERMINING WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. TEMPS WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE MAIN CHANGES BEING INCREASES IN POP AND QPF.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BEING CUT OFF
BY WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST. THESE HEIGHT RISES BUILD INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES...RISING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BRING LESS CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR UNTIL 18Z EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...THEN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER
18Z...AND SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...EXCEPT FOR STRONGER
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     IDZ011-IDZ012-IDZ013-IDZ014-IDZ015-IDZ016-IDZ028-IDZ029-
     IDZ030.
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ061-ORZ062-ORZ063-ORZ064.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
516 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

IDZ011>016-028>030-ORZ061>064-151215-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
CAMAS PRAIRIE-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-
HARNEY COUNTY-BAKER COUNTY-MALHEUR COUNTY-
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OR-
516 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009 /416 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WEST CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TODAY. HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER CALLS WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HELPFUL AND
ARE APPRECIATED. OF COURSE...ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REPORTS
ARE ALWAYS WELCOMED.