Severe Thunderstorm Warning 422, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A
FAIRLY LARGE DRY SLOT HAS SLIPPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.  THIS HAS LED TO DECREASED RAIN COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVERAGE.  THIS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE INSTABILITIES AND FACILITATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE THE RAINFALL.  WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  BEYOND THAT...I AM GOING TO INTRODUCE
THE CONCERN FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UPPER AIR RUN...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE PW
VALUES...INTO THE 1.70 INCH AREA...CORROBORATES THE WV SATELLITE.
THOUGH WE SAW THIS YESTERDAY...WE DIDNT SEE ANY DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS LIKE WE SEE THIS MORNING.  ITS NOT A TON...BUT IT IS
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CONCERN ABOUT STRENGTHENED OUTFLOWS THAT COULD
REACH 40-45 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY OTHER THING FOR THE UPDATE...BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.  REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY. LOCATION AND TIMING
TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ANYTHING BEYOND VCTS AT THIS TIME AT ANY
TERMINAL. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18 AND
00Z...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN
STRONGER STORMS. AFTER SUNSET...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...BUT AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS
THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT WITHIN SH/TS ACTIVITY...SHOULD REMAIN AT
MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

27/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1042 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-171542-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1042 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING WITH THEM THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.  THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...BUT
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALSO...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SATURATE SOILS...INCREASING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

ALZ042-044-161730-
LOWNDES-MONTGOMERY-
1151 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LOWNDES AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1150 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAYNEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CANTELOUS.
  DANNELLY FIELD.
  MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE.
  MONTGOMERY.
  AUBURN UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.