Severe Thunderstorm Warning 417, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO AREAS EAST
OF A MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO JACKSON MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO WEAKEN. BASED ON PREVIOUS NIGHTS ACTIVITY HARD TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS FROM GFS MOS FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND THERE WOULD HAVE
TO BE RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TO WARRANT ANYTHING ABOVE 50
PERCENT.

SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP TOMORROW MORNING...
AND EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN EAST OF I-65...AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES
WITH DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF TROF AXIS. MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PREVENTS SOUTHERN END OF TROF AXIS
FROM ADVANCING EASTWARD...AND UPPER TROF AXIS HANGS UP OVER EAST
ALABAMA THRU THE WEEKEND. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT UPPER TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER EAST
ALABAMA IN THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...SO POPS WILL HAVE TO
BE ADJUSTED ON A SHORT TERM BASIS. LONG TERM MODELS HINT AT UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SMALLER RAIN
CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FUN SET OF TAFS TO FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING AND  WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FIRING UP IN THREE SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WILL IMPACT BHM BY 1830Z TO 19Z.
WENT WITH TEMPO TS FROM 18 TO 20Z FOR THIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
SURROUNDING EET SO WENT WITH TEMPO TS HERE FROM 18 TO 22Z. WILL SEE
MORE SHOWERS FIRING IN THIS ZONE FROM TCL TO EET TO ANB THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

AFTER 22Z...TIMING IS DIFFICULT AS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PUT OUT
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES...SO WENT WITH SHRA AND VCTS AFTER 20Z FOR ALL
TAFS. WILL NEED TO AMEND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASE FOR ANY TIMING
AFTER THIS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE 12
TO 15Z TIME FRAME CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AT OR UNDER 1000 FEET SO
TRIED TO TIME THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. MAY STILL SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  86  66  89  65 /  50  50  20  10  10
ANNISTON    71  86  69  89  69 /  50  60  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  68  89  68 /  50  50  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  89  68  92  67 /  50  40  20  10  10
CALERA      73  86  69  90  69 /  50  60  20  10  10
AUBURN      71  85  69  86  71 /  40  70  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  74  88  71  91  70 /  40  70  40  30  20
TROY        73  88  71  89  69 /  40  70  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1050 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-121130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1050 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

ALZ033-040-112045-
DALLAS-PERRY-
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DALLAS AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 345
PM CDT...

AT 257 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNIONTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

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