Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
318 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE NIGHT SETTING UP ACROSS ALABAMA AS AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ARLATEX REGION LIFTS ENE
AND PUSHES A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT.
NOT ONLY IS THERE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND DEEPEN. THE INCREASING LOW FLOW WILL CAUSE FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ONCE
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NW ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-20. THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BASED ON THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS NW COUNTIES DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 3 INCHES IN
SOME AREAS...SO LOCALIZED FLOODING A POSSIBILITY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WHICH
MEANS HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY...THE PRIMARY THREAT ON FRIDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL..
BUT STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT AND WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

MAIN UPPER TROF WILL PASS SOUTH OF AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER MID
LEVEL SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA....AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF WILL AFFECT AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT BOTH PERIODS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM. NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS COULD SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EASTWARD
TO BREAK CURRENT WET PATTERN...BUT A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CAN
ALSO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MENTIONED
VCTS AT ALL SITES AS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS AT BEST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN COVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO KEPT TSRA WORDING IN ALL
NORTHERN TAFS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS LESS IN HOW OR IF THIS SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT MGM AND TOI. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THIS
AREA.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  85  68  90  70 /  70  60  20  30  50
ANNISTON    72  86  70  90  71 /  60  70  20  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  75  86  72  89  73 /  70  60  20  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  74  87  70  91  73 /  70  60  20  40  50
CALERA      73  85  71  89  73 /  60  60  20  40  40
AUBURN      72  85  71  86  71 /  40  80  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  88  73  91  74 /  40  80  30  40  40
TROY        73  87  72  89  73 /  40  80  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1213 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-310200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1213 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE THREATS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE
HIGHEST ALONG I-20 AND NORTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A FEW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
409 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ALZ025>027-302200-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
409 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SHELBY...ST. CLAIR AND TALLADEGA
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 408 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHELSEA TO WESTOVER TO
SYLACAUGA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHELSEA TO 7 MILES NORTH
OF WILSONVILLE TO SYLACAUGA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CHELSEA.
  SYCAMORE.
  VINCENT.
  WINTERBORO.
  STERRETT.
  COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ALABASTER          33.26N 86.82W
07/30/2009                   SHELBY             AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE SMALL TREE DOWN ON INDUSTRIAL BOULEVARD BLOCKING THE
            ROAD. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 MPH.

&&

MGRANTHAM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
505 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ALZ011-302245-
MARION-
505 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 505 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR GUIN...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  GUIN.
  GU-WIN.
  PEA RIDGE.
  TUCKER.
  BRILLIANT.
  PINEY GROVE.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
511 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW STAR              33.70N 88.24W
07/30/2009                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIN ROOFING PEELED UP ON A BARN. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50
            MPH.

&&

MGRANTHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ALZ042-044-302315-
LOWNDES-MONTGOMERY-
543 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LOWNDES AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 542 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT DEPOSIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FORT DEPOSIT.
  CALHOUN.
  DAVENPORT.
  STRATA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.