Severe Thunderstorm Warning 393, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
249 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PROVED TO BE THE WINNER TODAY.  MENTIONED IN
THE MORNING DISCUSSION THE HIGH CLOUD DECK THAT SET UP ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES THIS MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE KEPT THAT DECK IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR THE EARTHS SURFACE TO WARM JUST ENOUGH TO GET
CONVECTION INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE STORMS WILL CARRY WITH THEM THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AS 500MB
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO REACH -8 DEGREES...UNSEASONABLY COOL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR

THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.  MODELS LOOK TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA...SO THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US YET AGAIN MONDAY AS THE AIR
HEATS UP.  FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE EVER IT SETS
UP...BUT ANY OUTFLOWS FROM TODAYS ACTIVITY WILL CREATE A FOCUS FOR
LIFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER FORECASTS OUT WEST.  THE MAIN
FEATURE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR MID WEEK WILL BE THE
BERMUDA HIGH AND HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PUSH.  THIS WILL BE THE ONE
OF...IF NOT THE...FACTOR IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION CENTRAL ALABAMA
RECEIVES THIS WEEK.  THE FURTHER IT BUILDS TO THE WEST...THE LESS
LIKELY IT WILL BE FOR US TO SEE ANY REAL ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW...THE WETTEST DAYS STILL LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CAN EXPECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS EACH DAY AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE JUST ABOUT DRY ADIABATIC AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LIKELY BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT
WILL KEEP US AROUND CLIMO PLUS OR MINUS TWO DEGREES.

27

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED SSE ACROSS MS MERGED WITH
DEVELOPING OUTFLOW STORMS AND HAS FORMED NEW AREA OF TSRA GROWTH.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS MS AND NOT AL. HOWEVER...AMPLE HEATING
ACROSS MOST SE 2/3 OF AL IS CAUSING RAPID CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL AIDE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO AFFECT AL. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STAIR-STEPPED WITH ONSET...TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXCEPT MGM/TOI AS SYSTEM SWINGS EWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH.

NOTE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWAITING ADDITIONAL ASOS PARTS.
THEREFORE...KEET CEILOMETER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY.  DEPENDING ON ONSET OF ACTIVITY. TAF MAY NEED TO BE GIVEN A
NIL LATER TODAY. AS FOR NOW AMD NOT SKED IS BEING APPENDED TO TAF.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  88  71  87  72 /  40  30  10  50  60
ANNISTON    70  88  69  87  70 /  40  40  10  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  70  86  71 /  40  30  20  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  72  91  71  88  72 /  40  30  20  60  60
CALERA      71  88  70  86  71 /  40  40  20  60  60
AUBURN      70  89  68  87  70 /  50  50  20  50  50
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  87  72 /  50  50  30  60  50
TROY        72  90  70  89  71 /  50  50  30  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

27/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-271300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
110 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG...AND A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 59 WHERE GREATEST HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE MAY BE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AT THIS POINT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST INTERSTATE 59 BY LATE AFTERNOON.

08

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