Severe Thunderstorm Warning 387, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW CALMING A DOWN BIT AFTER MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE PATCH OF PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER JEFFERSON AND SHELBY
COUNTIES AS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO INITIATE CELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH SOMEWHAT OF A TRAINING SCENARIO NEAR HIGHWAY 78 AND
INTERSTATE 65. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT HOUR...OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY ISOLATED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER TENNESSEE BARES WATCHING OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER.
BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND SKY WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS, INCLUDING POPS, LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL PROBABLY ISSUE
A LATE EVENING UPDATE TO GET A BETTER TIMING ON THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHWESTERN FLOW CONTINUES THE FUN OF MCS DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST
MCS THAT DEVELOPED AROUND LAST TAF ISSUANCE HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND
MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS MAY SEND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ANB OVER THE NEXT HOURS...BUT JUST VCTS. MEANWHILE
A SECOND MCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IS NOW
SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. OVERALL THE PAST 30 MINUTES
HAS SHOWN A SIGN OF SOME WEAKENING WITH THIS COMPLEX AS WELL AS IT
MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. MODELS ARE WAY OFF WITH
THIS FEATURE SO HAVE ESTIMATED THE TIME OF ARRIVAL BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS FOR TCL...BHM...AND EET. WENT WITH TEMPO TSRA FOR THESE SITES
FROM 7 TO 11Z...WITH GENERALLY MVFR VIS. DID LOWER TCL DOWN TO 2SM
IN THE THUNDERSTORM AS THE TRACK OF THE CURRENT COMPLEX IS DUE SOUTH
AND WOULD TRACK MAINLY OVER TCL...ALTHOUGH IF THE THUNDERSTORM IS
STRONG ENOUGH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EET AND BHM AS WELL. FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAFS EXPECT JUST RAIN BY SUNRISE AS THE MCS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HERE.

THE AFTERNOON IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO...BUT STUCK WITH
CONSISTENCY HERE AND WENT WITH VCSH FROM 15 TO 18Z FOR ALL SITES
WITH TEMPO TS AND LOWERED VIS AND CIGS 18 TO 22Z NORTH AND 20 TO 24Z
SOUTH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING WILL RESULT ON
THE CONTINUATION AND DURATION OF THIS MCS AND WHAT IT TRIGGERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  86  71  90  73 /  50  70  30  20  10
ANNISTON    71  86  72  89  73 /  40  60  30  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  74  90  75 /  50  70  30  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  89  75  93  77 /  40  70  30  30  10
CALERA      72  88  73  90  74 /  50  70  30  30  10
AUBURN      71  85  73  89  71 /  20  50  30  40  20
MONTGOMERY  74  90  74  90  74 /  20  50  30  50  20
TROY        74  89  73  89  73 /  20  40  30  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

88/88/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-140000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN LINE. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON MONDAY
AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND.

ON TUESDAY STRONG STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

ALZ017-130645-
BLOUNT-
1256 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT COUNTY UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 1255 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF CULLMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  STRAWBERRY.
  BROOKSVILLE.
  CHAMBLEES MILL.
  CLEVELAND.
  FAIRVIEW.
  ALLGOOD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10/ARM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

ALZ014-130645-
WINSTON-
100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 1258 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NESMITH TO 5 MILES NORTH OF
HALEYVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ARLEY TO HALEYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ADDISON.
  NEEDMORE.
  ROCK CREEK.
  WINSTON FREE STATE BARN.
  WEISS.
  NATURAL BRIDGE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.