Severe Thunderstorm Warning 322, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
709 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.UPDATED...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ALL IS QUIET SO FAR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE WATCHING
ANOTHER MCS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS WILL PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT
CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THIS
FEATURE OR SOME OFFSHOOT OF IT LATER IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...POPS
WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY GIVING US ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. 00Z NAM AND EURO ARE INDICATING ANOTHER
IMPULSE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ON MONDAY SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS TO BE DOMINATED BY A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES AND LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID
90S AREA WIDE.

LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO BACK BUILD THE RIDGE AS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE EJECTS INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE
A LITTLE QUICK WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE
EUROS TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE WHILE BRINGING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THERE IS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ON RADAR THIS MORNING MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS...AND ENTERING NORTHERN MS AND EASTERN TN.
THIS COMPLEX COULD AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER ON
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...IF THE MOVEMENT SHIFTS
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME ONLY GOING TO MENTION VCTS DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF THE COMPLEXS IMPACT ACROSS THE
AREA.

PATCHY FOG REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT VIS IS NOW AT OR NEAR 6SM AT ALL SITES.
THE EXCEPTION IS TCL WHERE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF
LOWER VIS DUE TO LIGHT FOG.

CIGS AROUND 1500 FT ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN SITES AT THIS TIME
BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  67  88  67  89 /  30  40  50  20  30
ANNISTON    90  70  89  69  91 /  30  30  40  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  90  71  90  71  92 /  40  40  40  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  92  72  93  70  95 /  40  30  30  10  10
CALERA      90  71  90  71  92 /  40  30  40  10  10
AUBURN      91  72  91  72  92 /  20  20  40  10  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  94  72  96 /  30  20  30  10  10
TROY        94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

88/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-151119-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...FROM
11 AM THROUGH 8 PM...AS A ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED WOULD BE THOSE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

ADDITIONALLY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS IS MODERATE TO
HIGH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
932 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

ALZ013-015-141515-
FAYETTE-WALKER-
932 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 AM CDT...

AT 931 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LYNN TO KANSAS TO 8 MILES
NORTH OF BERRY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LYNN TO CARBON HILL
TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARBON HILL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  KANSAS.
  CARBON HILL.
  NAUVOO.
  TOWNLEY.
  LUPTON.
  OAKMAN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

JD/02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTE                 33.69N 87.83W
06/14/2009                   FAYETTE            AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 18 WEST OF FAYETTE.

&&

KSUMRALL