Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OBVIOUSLY CURRENTLY WATCHING UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS MAKING A BEE LINE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION FAILURES IN THE MODELS MAKE THEM PRETTY MUCH
USELESS FOR POP PURPOSES MOST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL GO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MOS POPS TONIGHT...AND INCLUDE ENHANCED
DAMAGING WIND ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE UPSTREAM
BOW WILL MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...IF NOT
COMPLETELY ACROSS THE STATE.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS LARGELY SEAT OF MY PANTS...SINCE MOS
POPS ARE NOT TO BE TRUSTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE POTENTIAL
FIRING LINE FOR ADDITIONAL MCS CLUSTERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT...WILL TREND THINGS MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY BLENDED
WITH THE ANTICIPATED AFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION AND HIGHER TEMPS).

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL DOMINATE SKY CONDS THRU 01Z.  TSTMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN MCS OVER
ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND COULD AFFECT WEST ALABAMA BETWEEN
01Z AND 05Z.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
TSTMS IN TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  89  68  90  68 /  50  30  20  30  30
ANNISTON    68  91  68  91  70 /  50  30  20  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  89  70  92  72 /  60  40  20  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  71  92  70  94  71 /  60  40  20  30  30
CALERA      71  89  70  92  70 /  60  40  20  30  30
AUBURN      70  89  71  92  73 /  40  30  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  72  93  71  95  72 /  50  20  20  30  20
TROY        70  91  71  94  71 /  30  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-131200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1251 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LINE FROM GEIGER...TO MARION...
TO WETUMPKA...TO AUBURN. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.  A MORE ORGANIZED
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING AS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL IS WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
ALABAMA....BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH.  THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
REQUIRED TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
441 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             DOUBLE SPRINGS          34.15N 87.40W
06/12/2009  E0.50 INCH       WINSTON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN DOUBLE SPRINGS.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
447 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
06/12/2009                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
            OF THE COUNTY. GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
448 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             5 N VERNON              33.83N 88.11W
06/12/2009  E0.75 INCH       LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 17 BETWEEN VERNON
            AND SULLIGENT NEAR THE VERNON AIRPORT.

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
06/12/2009                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
            OF THE COUNTY. GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 WNW FAYETTE          33.75N 88.01W
06/12/2009                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 18 NEAR CROSSVILLE.

0401 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW FAYETTE           33.66N 87.92W
06/12/2009                   FAYETTE            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON A HOUSE IN THE BELK COMMUNITY. PEOPLE
            REPORTED TRAPPED INSIDE. NO REPORTS OF INJURIES AT THIS
            TIME.

0427 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NW TUSCALOOSA MUNICIP 33.24N 87.64W
06/12/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED JUST
            NORTHWEST OF THE TUSCALOOSA AIRPORT.

0427 PM     HAIL             DOUBLE SPRINGS          34.15N 87.40W
06/12/2009  E0.50 INCH       WINSTON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN DOUBLE SPRINGS.

&&

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