Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FIRED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT STORMS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.  ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST SECTIONS.  FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL SLOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AREA-
WIDE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND CUTTING OF SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.  VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND MODELS INDICATE CAPES IN
THE 2000 TO 2500 RANGE.  SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THURSDAY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THURSDAY...THEN TAPER POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY UPPER
70S NORTHWEST TO MID 80S SOUTHEAST.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S.  HIGHS FRIDAY 80 TO 85.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GREAT LOOKING WEEKEND ON TAP AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
AND DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD.  WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE BEGINS A SLOW RETURN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.  WE CAN EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL EXPECTING A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED...BASICALLY THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SUMMER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
PATCHY FOG OR HAZE IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW WHICH WILL DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE. CURRENTLY...VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO 6
MILES...BARELY ABOVE MVFR. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE ON THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE DEPENDING ON WHAT COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TO SAY.

10/ARM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  86  65  83  63 /  20  30  30  70  50
ANNISTON    67  88  66  83  65 /  20  20  30  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  89  69  82  65 /  20  20  30  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  69  83  66 /  20  20  30  60  50
CALERA      69  88  68  82  66 /  20  20  30  70  50
AUBURN      67  85  67  83  65 /  20  20  40  60  50
MONTGOMERY  68  89  68  84  67 /  20  30  40  70  50
TROY        67  87  67  84  68 /  20  40  40  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-031129-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 9 PM.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE
POTENTIAL THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

03

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