Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
325 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE AREA TODAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TONIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. GENERAL THINKING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...ONE EARLY IN THE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...AND ONE DURING THE DAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...BUT THE
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN
THE MID- LEVELS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN GEORGIA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE COLD FRONT REDEVELOPS CONVECTION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SHOT OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW IMPULSES TO ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THINGS
BEGIN TO FINALLY DRY OUT ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO OUR WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPS HEATING UP A BIT. TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH ARE ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

56/17

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD
TOWARD TOI LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  84  63  82  60 /  40  60  20  20  10
ANNISTON    67  84  65  82  59 /  40  60  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  68  84  65  82  60 /  40  50  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  85  65  83  62 /  50  20  20  20  10
CALERA      68  84  66  82  60 /  30  50  20  20  10
AUBURN      66  85  65  84  59 /  30  60  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  85  67  85  62 /  30  60  20  20  10
TROY        69  85  67  84  62 /  30  60  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

56/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-281828-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
FROM 2 PM UNTIL 8 PM...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...
PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE PRIMARY
RISK AREA WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM
UNTIL 8 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY ON THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ014-272245-
WINSTON-
516 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEAST WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FALLS CITY...OR NEAR ARLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FALLS CITY.
  ARLEY.
  HELICON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
517 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ035-041-272300-
AUTAUGA-CHILTON-
517 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA AND CHILTON COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

AT 517 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR POOLES CROSSROADS...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CLANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  POOLES CROSSROADS.
  BILLINGSLEY.
  ENTERPRISE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
523 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ013-272300-
FAYETTE-
523 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 522 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLOOMING GROVE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAYETTE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BLUFF.
  RICHARD ARTHUR FIELD.
  HUBBERTVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KSL

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