Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
247 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...

QUESTIONS FROM EARLIER TODAY ARE PANNING OUT AND SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20/I-59 CORRIDOR...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR
IN PLACE. AT THIS TIME SEEING MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WITH THIS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES EXPECT THIS AREA
TO GROW IN SIZE AND SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE AND SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT IN TENNESSEE... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE..A THIRD
AREA OF CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-85. THIS AREA REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE COASTLINE. WOULD EXPECTED MORE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THERE MAY BE A SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE TO ROUGHLY THE I-85 CORRIDOR THAT MAY REMAIN DRY
FOR THE REST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...HAVE TAKEN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND HAVE BASED FORECAST ON THESE FACTORS. WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS SECTOR...TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AREAS IN THE I-20/I-59 CORRIDOR WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS DOWN TO THE
I-85 CORRIDOR WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. HAVE INCLUDED ANOTHER HIGH
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WENT WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
QUESTION IS WILL IT DISSIPATE BEFORE 7 PM OR AFTER 7 PM.

FOR TUESDAY...LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAY BE MUCH LIKE
TODAY AND BE MORE BOUNDARY ZONES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO SOME
AREAS MAY BE DRY WITH OTHERS RECEIVING QUITE A BIT OF RAIN.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MID SOUTH AND PUSH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
WITH A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
TROUGH MAY LEAVE ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT HARD TO
PIN POINT TIMING AND LOCATION. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AND
AMEND FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.  OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER 06Z CIGS AND/OR VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.  WITH AIR MASS REMAINING
UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
AT ANY TIME SO WILL KEEP VCTS MENTIONED AT ALL SITES.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  79  60  79  60 /  40  30  40  70  50
ANNISTON    61  81  62  81  61 /  50  30  40  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  61  79  65  82  64 /  50  30  40  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  61  82  65  82  65 /  30  30  40  70  40
CALERA      62  81  65  80  65 /  50  30  40  70  50
AUBURN      63  79  65  81  63 /  40  40  30  50  50
MONTGOMERY  64  84  65  84  65 /  30  30  30  40  40
TROY        64  83  63  86  65 /  50  50  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

07/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-051200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY BY 2 PM.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES...WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

03

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