Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENTLY TWO SEPARATE BOUNDARIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE FIRST...MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE...CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF US. LOOKING AT RADAR...ANOTHER MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THAT BOUNDARY AND WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN SLIDE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND...MORE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
HAS SET UP SHOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ANNISTON TO SELMA
LINE. HERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE UP. BOTH
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FOR BOTH OF THESE
AREA WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS DESCENT SHEAR SPREADS AS FAR SOUTH AS DALLAS
COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
AND A SURFACE LOW WILL SWING UP AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY THE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY A STORM FIRES
UP. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES TO BE BETWEEN 700
AND 1500 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -3 TO -5...PW OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. THE BIG QUESTION IS GOING TO BE TIMING. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT MAYBE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN LINE WORKING INTO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT AND CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK...SO STAY TUNED.

THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH BY TUESDAY...BUT THEN A NEW BOUNDARY WORKS
IN BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND WILL AFFECT SOME OF OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADDED TO THE SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS. THE REST OF THE SITES WILL CARRY VC FOR
NOW. THE TEMPO GROUPS WERE BASED ON ESTIMATES OF WHEN THESE STORMS
WILL BE AT A PARTICULAR TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS
AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED THROUGH OUT THE NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THESE STORMS...LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM. JUST LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTERWARD. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP
AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

10/ARM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE VERNON             33.69N 88.03W
05/02/2009  E0 MPH           LAMAR              AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

MBAER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HAMILTON                34.14N 87.98W
05/02/2009                   MARION             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CR42 WITH PEA SIZE HAIL IN HAMILTON

0342 PM     HAIL             1 N PEARCES MILL        34.14N 87.84W
05/02/2009  E0.88 INCH       MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            NICKEL HAIL NEAR HWY 278/253

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMILTON                34.14N 87.98W
05/02/2009                   MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

0449 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SE VERNON             33.72N 88.06W
05/02/2009                   LAMAR              AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR CODY WITH WALL CLOUD

0502 PM     HAIL             3 W VERNON              33.76N 88.17W
05/02/2009  E1.00 INCH       LAMAR              AL   PUBLIC

0503 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W FAYETTE             33.69N 87.88W
05/02/2009                   FAYETTE            AL   PUBLIC

            NEAR MT VERNON HWY 18

0508 PM     HAIL             7 SW VERNON             33.69N 88.20W
05/02/2009  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR BAXTER

0512 PM     TORNADO          3 NW FAYETTE            33.72N 87.87W
05/02/2009                   FAYETTE            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED BY TWO LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS NEAR
            COUNTY RD 107 AND HWY 18

0530 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 S VERNON              33.69N 88.11W
05/02/2009                   LAMAR              AL   PUBLIC

            UNCONFIRMED TORNADO ON HWY 17, SKYWATCHER REPORT

0538 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE VERNON             33.69N 88.03W
05/02/2009  E0.00 MPH        LAMAR              AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

0542 PM     HAIL             7 SE VERNON             33.69N 88.03W
05/02/2009  E1.00 INCH       LAMAR              AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2MI NW KENNEDY

&&

STEFKOVICH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             BERRY                   33.66N 87.61W
05/02/2009  E1.75 INCH       FAYETTE            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MBAER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
707 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     JASPER                  33.85N 87.27W
05/02/2009                   WALKER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 69

&&

MBAER