Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
253 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENTLY TWO SEPARATE BOUNDARIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE FIRST...MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE...CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF US. LOOKING AT RADAR...ANOTHER MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THAT BOUNDARY AND WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN SLIDE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND...MORE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
HAS SET UP SHOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ANNISTON TO SELMA
LINE. HERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE UP. BOTH
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FOR BOTH OF THESE
AREA WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS DESCENT SHEAR SPREADS AS FAR SOUTH AS DALLAS
COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
AND A SURFACE LOW WILL SWING UP AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY THE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY A STORM FIRES
UP. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES TO BE BETWEEN 700
AND 1500 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -3 TO -5...PW OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. THE BIG QUESTION IS GOING TO BE TIMING. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT MAYBE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN LINE WORKING INTO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT AND CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK...SO STAY TUNED.

THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH BY TUESDAY...BUT THEN A NEW BOUNDARY WORKS
IN BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.  EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE AND A LOWERING
OF CEILINGS AND VIS AS SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD.  LINGERING RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL HAVE JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AS PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT OBS INDICATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  79  60  74  54 /  70  60  80  50  20
ANNISTON    62  81  63  75  56 /  60  50  70  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  80  64  75  56 /  60  60  80  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  66  82  63  74  57 /  60  60  80  50  20
CALERA      66  82  64  77  58 /  50  50  70  50  20
AUBURN      63  84  65  80  61 /  30  30  40  70  40
MONTGOMERY  66  86  66  81  60 /  20  30  50  70  30
TROY        64  85  66  82  62 /  20  20  30  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

07/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-031715-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER 2 PM ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LIVINGSTON...TO CLANTON...TO LAFAYETTE LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.  SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2 PM UNTIL 9
PM...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HAMILTON                34.14N 87.98W
05/02/2009                   MARION             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CR42 WITH PEA SIZE HAIL IN HAMILTON

&&

MBAER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
412 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             1 N PEARCES MILL        34.14N 87.84W
05/02/2009  E0.88 INCH       MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            NICKEL HAIL NEAR HWY 278/253

&&

STEFKOVICH