Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.

ACTIVE EVENING EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 5
PM AND 11 PM...HELPING TO TRIGGER STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DE-STABILIZE.
WILL INCLUDE RATHER HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT AND SEVERE WORDING.  BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 PRIOR TO 8 PM AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER 8 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT.  MAY ADJUST POPS JUST BEFORE RELEASE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER PORTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH AND WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND COOL TEMPERATURES AS FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.  WE CAN
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.  HIGHS EACH DAY MID 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT...
THEN 35 TO 45 TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID-
WEEK...THEN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE WEEK PROVIDING FOR A
VERY NICE WARM-UP.  WE CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY.  HIGHS 65 TO 75 EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
04Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT.  ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY.  EXPECT CEILINGS 2000 TO 3000 FEET WITH TEMPORARY CEILINGS
AROUND 1000 FEET THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z EXPECT CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000
FEET IN MAINLY A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  66  42  67  39 /  60  20  20  20  10
ANNISTON    54  67  42  68  39 /  70  20  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  54  67  42  68  42 /  60  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  53  70  45  72  42 /  40  10  10  10  10
CALERA      54  68  44  68  41 /  60  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      54  70  43  70  42 /  60  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  56  71  47  72  43 /  60  10  10  10  10
TROY        57  72  47  72  41 /  60  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
227 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-201927-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
227 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 PRIOR TO 8 PM WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND THE SLIM CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AFTER 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.  AFTER 8 PM...THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE WESTERN TIER
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THROUGH 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WHILE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME...AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
950 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE ASHVILLE           33.87N 86.23W
04/19/2009                   ST. CLAIR          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES ALONG HIGHWAY 411
            ON JOSHUA DRIVE...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHVILLE. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

&&

ARM

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