Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1019 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING CLOSELY AS MESOSCALE SITUATION EVOLVES THIS MORNING. AS
EXPECTED...MAIN LIMITING FACTOR/CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE
INSTABILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE RATHER STOUT...50 KNOTS AT
ABOUT 2.5KFT ABOVE THE DECK...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET THIS
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS AND
RUC13 FORECAST...CONCUR WITH SWOMCD REGARDING LOCATION OF BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOWING UP IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS THIS
AREA...WITH TEMPS NOW RISING INTO THE 70 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS
CREEPING UPWARD WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S. INFLUX OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AS THE
LINE MOVES INTO THE GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR INTENSIFICATION. WHILE BRIEF SPINUPS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE LINE...STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTH. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT MORE ISOLATED CELLS IN
THE SOUTH MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A TORNADO AS CAPES AND SHEAR
CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BEING UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING
ON TIMING.

JD/81

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FEET HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA THE PAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KNOTS BY 15Z DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
REACH TCL BY 17Z AND I-65 CORRIDOR BY 18Z...AND NEAR ANB AND MGM
BETWEEN 21 AND 22Z.  SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DUE TO HIGH SHEAR AND A SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM EAST TO
WEST.  RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF ALABAMA BY 00Z WITH CLEARING
ABOUT 2 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY NORTHERN HALF UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY SOUTHERN HALF UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-121230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
100 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM BIRMINGHAM TO
UNIONTOWN THROUGH 6 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. AREAS
NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SQUALL LINE
GENERALLY BEFORE 2 PM. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL BE
AFFECTED THROUGH TO 6 PM.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING WEAKER TREES AND TREE
LIMBS. THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE SQUALL LINE. TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...
AND OTHER LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT COULD BECOME
PROJECTILES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE THREAT WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED TODAY...DUE TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

75/LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LAKE TUSCALOOSA         33.27N 87.51W
02/11/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR LAKE TUSCALOOSA.

&&

MLINHARE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HALEYVILLE              34.24N 87.62W
02/11/2009                   WINSTON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN HALEYVILLE.

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LYNN                    34.04N 87.55W
02/11/2009                   WINSTON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE TO HOME IN LYNN.

1045 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
02/11/2009                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN NEAR VERNON.

1139 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HAMILTON                34.14N 87.98W
02/11/2009                   MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON MILITARY STREET IN HAMILTON

1139 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GUIN                    33.97N 87.91W
02/11/2009                   MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 44 IN NE GUIN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LAKE TUSCALOOSA         33.27N 87.51W
02/11/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR LAKE TUSCALOOSA.

&&

MLINHARE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SPRINGVILLE             33.77N 86.48W
02/11/2009                   ST. CLAIR          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST 5 TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 27 NEAR
            SPRINGVILLE

&&

MLINHARE

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