River Flood Warning 68, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF IDA ARE JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN COLUMBUS
GA AND TALLAHASSEE FL...AS THE ONCE HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT ABSORBED IDA IS CONTINUING TO CLEAR THE AREA AS
WELL...AND WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

SOMEWHAT COOLER AND CERTAINLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SETTLES SOUTHWARD. WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
CLEARING SKIES WITH A DECENT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THANKS TO THE
INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM IDA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE HIGH WORKS
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SETTLE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

THE ONLY REAL WEATHER OF NOTE COMES ALONG IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. AS OF WRITING...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HANDLING THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ANY
CONSISTENCY AT THE MOMENT. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL DROP OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GET PICKED UP BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET FROM
THE BAJA REGION. THE EURO MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
AND PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW...BRINGING A FORMIDABLE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND MORE RAIN TO
THE AREA AROUND MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TO BALK A
BIT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...OPTING FOR A MORE
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
PLAY IN WREAKS EVEN MORE HAVOC WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. I WAS REMARKING EARLIER THAT THE LOWS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 39 TO 54...DEPENDING ON WHAT
SOLUTION YOU CHOOSE TO GO WITH. ALL THAT SAID...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PLAY ANYTHING BUT THE SAFETY CARD WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST. AT
THIS POINT...WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND BY PLAYING THE AVERAGES AND
A MIX OF CLIMO FOR MID NOVEMBER. WILL HAVE TIME TO SORT IT OUT AS
WE DRAW CLOSER.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIND WILL REMAIN BRISK TODAY.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES EXPECT SPEEDS
TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS BY 16Z BUT RELAX A BIT AFTER
20Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH.

LOW CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR HEIGHTS)WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MIDDAY.  BY 1800 MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
CEILING FREE WITH PERHAPS MGM AND TOI THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS...HOWEVER
EVEN HERE CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR BY 2100.

12/SIRMON

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

17/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-121115-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
515 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL RIVERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.