River Flood Warning 56, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BUSY MORNING SO FAR. SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG GULF
COAST. HAVE BEEN PLAGUED BY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NRN
HALF OF CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING IN
THE UPPER W/SW FLOW. FOR TODAY...CONTINUING TO EXPECT SFC BOUNDARY
TO MOVE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR RAINFALL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP TODAY IN THE VCNTY OF THE
BOUNDARY. STRENGTH DEPENDS ON INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE HAMPERED
BY LOW CLOUDS AND LACK OF HEATING. UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE
SOME ON TODAY WITH HIGH BECOMING ELONGATED MORE ACROSS
GULF...CREATING A MORE ZONAL FLOW AS IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TIGHT UPPER FLOW. PWS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MID
WEEK. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A LINGERING SFC
FEATURE...AND A PATTERN OF REPEATED SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. ON
TUE..NOT EXPECTING NEXT ROUND TO START UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH
MAIN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE INTO AL AND STALL ACROSS C AL AS THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO USHER IT OUT OF THE AREA
COMPLETELY UNTIL YET ANOTHER SFC FRONT COMES INTO C AL ON THU. BY
WED EVEN...UPPER HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
NW FLOW TO HELP DRIVE FRONT/UPPER LOW DOWN FURTHER S ON THU. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE EARLIER ON THU...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL WITH SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FOR FRI SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS HERE.
THU FRONT IS INDICATING TO HAVE A DECENT PUSH OF COLD/DRY AIR
BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND. NICE WHEN WE FINALLY GET TO IT.

08

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD CEILINGS CAUSING SOME PROBLEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO IFR AT MOST SITES AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. ACROSS
THE SOUTH...CIGS ARE AT VFR BUT WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
WELL. EXPECT CIGS TO HOVER AROUND THE MVFR/IFR BORDER OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF TO A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MGM AND TOI...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE LOW SIDE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  57  77  61  72 / 100  30  20  80  90
ANNISTON    73  57  78  60  72 / 100  30  20  80  90
BIRMINGHAM  72  57  78  60  74 / 100  20  30  80  90
TUSCALOOSA  76  61  80  66  79 / 100  20  50  80  90
CALERA      73  59  78  62  75 / 100  30  30  80  90
AUBURN      74  59  79  61  72 / 100  40  20  70  90
MONTGOMERY  80  65  81  67  79 / 100  40  40  70  80
TROY        80  64  81  65  78 /  90  40  30  60  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

08/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-131200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
725 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT DURING MAINLY THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM AROUND NOON UNTIL AROUND 8
PM. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER UPDATES TO THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
ON THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
654 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE FAIRFIELD          33.46N 86.90W
10/12/2009                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            WATER REPORTED UP TO THE BRIDGE ON B.Y. WILLIAMS DRIVE
            OVER VALLEY CREEK IN MIDFIELD.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE FAIRFIELD          33.46N 86.91W
10/12/2009                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            VANDERGRIFT DRIVE REPORTED IMPASSIBLE WITH APPROXIMATELY
            SIX INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY JUST OFF OF WOODWARD
            ROAD NEXT TO MIDFIELD PARK SHOPPING CENTER.

&&

GGOGGINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
849 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

ALZ037-038-047-121445-
CHAMBERS-LEE-TALLAPOOSA-
849 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHAMBERS...LEE AND TALLAPOOSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 849 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VEASEY CREEK PARK TO WEST CHAMBERS TO STILL WATERS RESORT...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF STROUD TO LAFAYETTE TO 11 MILES
NORTH OF TALLASSEE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CAMP HILL.
  FREDONIA.
  WEST CHAMBERS.
  ROXANA.
  WAVERLY.
  STURKIE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
938 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW ROANOKE           33.21N 85.42W
10/12/2009                   RANDOLPH           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CARPORT DISPLACED FROM A HOME IN THE ROCK STAND COMMUNITY
            AT THE INTERSECTION OF U.S. HIGHWAY 431 AND COUNTY ROAD
            65.

&&

GGOGGINS

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