River Flood Warning 46, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
HAD QUITE A BIT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

IF YOU GO WITH THE FASTEST MODEL...THE NAM...THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH BIRMINGHAM BY NOON AND THEN MONTGOMERY BY LATE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...WITH MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. AS OF ISSUANCE THE FRONT ITSELF STRETCHED FROM JUST
SOUTH OF BNA TO UOX AND DRIFTING SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS CLOSER TO
THE NAM...SO WILL TREND FORECAST CLOSER TO IT...HOWEVER SLOW IT DOWN
A FEW HOURS.

THE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRY TO TIME THE FRONT AND THE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT SOLD ENTIRELY WITH THE TIMING OF EVERYTHING.
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST WILL BE FROM NOW UNTIL 10 PM AS THE
FRONT WORKS IN. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BACK OFF ON POPS AND
EVEN TAKE OUT THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AFTER 2 AM. ATTENTION
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS...THOSE SUN SEEKERS WILL BE PLEASED AS THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN MODIFY
UPWARDS EACH DAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A MESS OUT THERE...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS.  SEVERAL ARAES OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
STATE...AND REALLY TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHICH AREAS WILL POSE
THE GREATEST IMPACT TO WHICH AIRPORTS.  IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM TCL...BHM...AND EET...BUT
MAY IMPACT ANB BY 17/02Z.  TO THE SOUTH...ONGOING STORMS IN TOI
SHOULD MOVE ONWARD...PERHAPS GETTING BACK UP INTO MGM.  MODELS PAINT
A WET AND STORMY PICTURE. BUT AS WORKED OVER AS THE AIR MASS IS...I
HAVE TO WONDER IF THE RAIN IS A BIT OVERDONE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
WITH A FAIRLY LOW LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE...THEN...I OPTED TO GO WITH
VCSH GROUPS RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT OR TEMPO SHRA OR TSRA GROUPS.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL BE MARKED BY A INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MARION...LAMAR...FAYETTE...WINSTON...
WALKER...BLOUNT...ETOWAH...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...
PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA...JEFFERSON...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...CLAY...RANDOLPH...BIBB...CHILTON...COOSA...
TALLAPOOSA...CHAMBERS...LEE UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-180000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
702 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH 10 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH.
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM AUBURN TO CLANTON TO
ALICEVILLE.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM EUTAW...TO CLANTON...
TO ALEXANDER CITY...TO LAFAYETTE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

ALZ044-162230-
MONTGOMERY-
504 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 503 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRAGUE...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MEADVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SPRAGUE.
  BARACHIAS.
  DUBLIN.
  CARTERS HILL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
517 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

ALZ050-162245-
BARBOUR-
517 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 517 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR OSCO...OR 7 MILES WEST OF EUFAULA...MOVING EAST AT
5 MPH.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  GAINO.
  OSCO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

ALZ049-162330-
PIKE-
557 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PIKE COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANTIOCH...OR NEAR TROY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ANTIOCH.
  BANKS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
601 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

ALZ015-017-024-162330-
BLOUNT-JEFFERSON-WALKER-
601 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT...JEFFERSON AND WALKER
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 600 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARKADELPHIA TO QUINTON...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SUMITON TO DORA...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  EMPIRE.
  ARKADELPHIA.
  PARTRIDGE CROSSROADS.
  CARDIFF.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

ALZ046-170000-
BULLOCK-
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BULLOCK COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 634 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ABERFOIL...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UNION SPRINGS...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  UNION SPRINGS.
  ABERFOIL.
  THREE NOTCH.
  MIDWAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

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