River Flood Warning 36, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DID A QUICK ZONE UPDATE MAINLY TO INCLUDE THE NEW TORNADO WATCH.
EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OR AT LEAST 5
AM. THE THREAT COULD ALSO EXTEND FARTHER TO THE NORTH INTO
TUSCALOOSA AND BIRMINGHAM AREA IN THAT SAME TIME FRAME. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BY LISTENING TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATION.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST THRU 12Z PRODUCING WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA...IMPACTING MGM AND TOI. FARTHER NORTH...VFR
CONDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BY 09Z WITH CONTINUOUS LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
CURRENT MCS WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA BY 12Z LEAVING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEST ALABAMA BY 16Z AND TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM 16Z UNTIL 21Z...LIKELY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 21Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
801 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-281200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
801 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM TROY TO SELMA TO ALICEVILLE BEFORE 2AM...AND A AUBURN TO
ALABASTER TO HAMILTON BY 5 AM. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE
COMPLEX. DO NOT CONCENTRATE ON THE TIMING...HAVE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER
PLANS READY TO GO...AND TAKE ACTION IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME QUITE
DANGEROUS.

IN ADDITION AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
KNOW WHAT WATER LEVELS RESULT IN PROBLEMS IN YOUR AREA AND MONITOR
YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE INTERNET AND TELEVISION AND RADIO
REPORTS TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AFTER THE SQUALL LINE PASSES...THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END.  THIS WEATHER SCENARIO HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS.

SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY...GIVING CENTRAL ALABAMA A TOTAL RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 4 TO 9 INCHES..WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. DUE
TO THE LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...SOME RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY LAST THROUGH MONDAY. KNOW WHAT WATER LEVELS
RESULT IN PROBLEMS IN YOUR AREA AND MONITOR YOUR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...THE INTERNET AND TELEVISION AND RADIO REPORTS TO KEEP UP TO
DATE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
EXIST...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MAKE SURE THAT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS ARE IN PLACE AND BE READY
TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
157 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

ALZ012>015-022-023-031>035-039>041-280800-
AUTAUGA-BIBB-CHILTON-DALLAS-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-LAMAR-MARENGO-PERRY-
PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
157 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...
FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...MARENGO...PERRY...PICKENS...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER AND WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 155 AM CDT...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WINDS MAY KNOCK SOME TREE LIMBS
DOWN AND MAKE POWER FLICKER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
209 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

ALZ011-280800-
MARION-
209 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 207 AM CDT...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WINDS MAY KNOCK SOME TREE LIMBS
DOWN AND MAKE POWER FLICKER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
221 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

ALZ024-025-280815-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
221 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JEFFERSON AND SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL
315 AM CDT...

AT 220 AM CDT...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WINDS MAY KNOCK SOME TREE LIMBS
DOWN AND MAKE POWER FLICKER.