River Flood Warning 35, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN IMPULSE/LLJ TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND PUSH EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY MIDDAY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE
SYSTEM HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A SURGE OF MOISTURE /ANOTHER WARM
FRONT/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...WITH MOST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HOLDING OFF TIL EARLY EVENING.
AIRMASS RECOVERY AND TIMING OF THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD
WILL DICTATE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE
CHANCE POPS IN...AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS COULD SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.

AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT...EXPECT CELLS TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND AREAS TO OUR
WEST. INSTABILITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR THESE CELLS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE
INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD WITH AN
EXPANDING LLJ. ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANOTHER
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

14

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FAIRLY LARGE RAIN SHIELD COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AT 12Z
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALONG WITH A SHORT
LIVED LIFR AROUND TOI BETWEEN 12-13Z AS A LINE OF +TS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT EVERYONE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
AS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.  ONE FINAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS THE STATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  54  70  41  57 /  70  60  80  20  10
ANNISTON    70  58  71  43  59 /  70  70  90  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  60  70  43  57 /  60  80  80  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  74  62  69  44  61 /  50  80  70  20  10
CALERA      70  61  69  43  59 /  70  80  80  20  10
AUBURN      67  59  72  44  60 /  90  60  80  20  10
MONTGOMERY  73  64  71  47  63 /  80  80  80  20  10
TROY        72  63  71  47  64 /  90  80  80  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FOR AUTAUGA...
BIBB...CHILTON...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...LOWNDES...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...SHELBY...CHAMBERS...LEE...MACON...
RUSSELL...TALLAPOOSA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE...
GREENE...HALE...MARENGO AND SUMTER COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-281130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
530 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CARRY OVER
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THIS CONVECTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
THROUGH NOON. A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXIST IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF TROY...UNION SPRINGS...EUFAULA...AND PHENIX CITY. THIS
THREAT WILL END BY AROUND 9 AM AS THE STRONGER ACTIVITY PUSHES
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL START
GENERALLY AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND LAST THE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
NIGHT. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX. DO NOT CONCENTRATE
ON THE TIMING...HAVE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS READY TO GO...AND TAKE
ACTION IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER
SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS.

HAVE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT OR MONITOR TELEVISION AND RADIO
REPORTS IN CASE SEVERE OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE SEVERE
THREAT TO AN END.

SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY...GIVING CENTRAL ALABAMA A TOTAL RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES..WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. DUE
TO THE LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...SOME RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY LAST THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
EXIST...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MAKE SURE THAT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS ARE IN PLACE AND BE READY
TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY THROUGH SATURDAY.

75/LINHARES

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