Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Birmingham, AL

Barbour County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL

000 
WWUS84 KBMX 171854
RFWBMX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1254 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELED...

ALZ017>021-026>029-036>038-042>050-172000-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-090217T2300Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-
MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1254 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION DEVELOPING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT...GARNERING THE LIONS SHARE OF ATTENTION AND TIME TONIGHT.

NOT SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE THE SLIGHT RISK ADDED IN THE DAY ONE
OUTLOOK FOR LATE TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...MOISTURE BEGINS
SURGING NORTHWARD TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING EASTWARD OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS RIDING UP AND OVER THE SURGING WARM
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDER TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER ALL BUT
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AGREE WITH SPC
ASSESSMENT FOR THE RISK OF ELEVATED STRONG STORMS AS EARLY AS
MIDNIGHT IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT WITH BEST THREAT BETWEEN
ABOUT 3 AM AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY. WITH A RATHER DEEP COOL LAYER
BELOW...MAIN THREAT HERE WOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND  CONTINGENT UPON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE INSTABILITY THAT MIGHT BE REALIZED. AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE BIT MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK.
SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE THREAT ARE COLDER UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT BUT NOT OVERPOWERING
SHEAR...AND A MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH OVER THE WARM SECTOR. AS FOR
POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTORS...PRIMARILY THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
PRECIP AND THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS WELL AS A
DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL JET IS NOT
IDEALLY POSITIONED AS WELL...BUT JET MAX APPROACHING WILL
CERTAINLY PROVIDE A DECENT ENVIRONMENT. NAM ONCE AGAIN STRONGLY
SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE. ALL THIS DEPENDS ON INSTABILITY WHICH WILL REQUIRE
SOME CLEARING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH LOOKS POSSIBLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD WITH THE CONCEPT OF REDEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD END
BY 03Z THURSDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS A VERY TENUOUS FORECAST THAT
COULD EASILY SWAY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. OBVIOUSLY...A SITUATION
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SATURDAY
CLIPPER HAS A LITTLE MORE JUICE TO IT...ALTHOUGH I DO HAVE TO
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF RETURN MOISTURE SO QUICKLY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM IN MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO ADD RAIN
SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LASTING INTO MID-
MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS OVER TO
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT...BUT
COULD NOT IGNORE THE POPS AND TEMPS AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME AND
PRETTY MUCH HAD TO PUT IT OUT THERE.

AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE US WELL INTO MONDAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

JD/02

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP FROM 5000 TO 2000 TO
3000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THIS IS ALL DUE TO THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. OVERALL TIMING
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AT ALL SO CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VCSH AT NORTHERN
SITES AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...SO INCLUDED RAIN AND VCTS FOR NORTHERN SITES BY 05 TO 06Z
AND TSRA BY 08 TO 09Z. THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL STAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID GO AND INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 09Z FOR
MGM AND TOI.

THERE ARE TWO ISSUES NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS THAT NEED TO BE
DISCUSSED IN THIS SECTION. ONE WOULD BE THE THREAT FOR LLWS AT THE
TAF SITES. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FOR THE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 00 AND
06Z. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION FOR
NOW...ESPECIALLY BEING MORE THAN 12 HOURS AWAY AND OUTSIDE THE
CRITICAL TIME PERIOD. SECOND WILL BE RESTRICTED VIS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD...JUST INTRODUCED OVERALL TIMING. AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER...MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON VIS RESTRICTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

02/02/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-181220-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
620 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WILL
HELP CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...GENERALLY EAST OF I 65. A RED FLAG WARNING IS EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 5 PM. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A
MILLPORT TO SIPSEY LINE...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 9 AM...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...
FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
BEST TIME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. THE
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH AND HAIL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.