Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
509 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS MORNING...WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER HUMIDITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 90S IN THE
SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE SLOWLY WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STAY TO THE WEST...WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LOCALLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...SETTLING NEAR THE
I-85 CORRIDOR. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 90S
IN THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO
THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES ON THURSDAY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

MOVING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TIMING ISSUES AND DIFFERENCES IN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PLAGUE THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE WEAKENING
TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD...THAN THE GFS. THIS POSITION OF THE RIDGE
WOULD KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. DAYTIME AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
POSSIBLE AID FROM ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO
OUR NORTH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. BY
SUNDAY...WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO
SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/RAIN COVERAGE. GENERALLY HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  58  92  62  90 /   0  10   0  10  20
ANNISTON    92  63  94  65  92 /   0  10   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  93  63  92  64  90 /   0  10   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  94  65  94  67  93 /   0  10  10   0  20
CALERA      94  66  94  68  92 /   0  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      92  65  92  68  91 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  96  66  97  71  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
TROY        96  66  97  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
728 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-301300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
728 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.