Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AXIS PASSING OVER THE
STATE. THIS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT END OF A DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
MONDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY, THE MODELS ARE
WAVERING A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS RETROGRADES THIS FEATURE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE
THE EURO AND CANADIAN KEEP IT FIRMLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN SOME
INSTABILITY CAN AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS
AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN WITH MINOR UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PROVIDING THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTH ALABAMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMGM AND
KTOI. DUE TO TROPICAL NATURE OF AIR MASS...CONVECTION WILL CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND IFR VSBYS.  NEAR LIFR CIGS AT KMGM AND KTOI
WILL SLOWLY RISE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE TIMING OF RAINFALL BEYOND 6 HOURS...AND
FORECAST REFLECTS A TREND OF DECREASING SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  69  80  68  82 /  80  70  70  60  60
ANNISTON    83  69  83  70  83 /  80  70  70  60  60
BIRMINGHAM  82  70  83  70  83 /  80  60  70  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  84  71  86  70  86 /  80  50  70  40  60
CALERA      82  70  82  69  84 /  80  60  70  50  60
AUBURN      82  67  83  69  81 /  60  50  60  50  60
MONTGOMERY  86  69  86  70  87 /  70  50  60  50  60
TROY        84  68  86  69  86 /  70  40  50  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-200000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
550 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
...THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HIGH TODAY...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IS EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...
KEEPING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE MOUNTAIN CREEK     32.65N 86.42W
09/19/2009                   AUTAUGA            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL PAVED ROADS WASHED OUT.

&&

MROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
801 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE MOUNTAIN CREEK    32.64N 86.44W
09/19/2009                   AUTAUGA            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TRAIN DERAILED AT MORTAR CREEK DUE TO WASHED OUT TRAIN
            TRACKS. COUNTY ROAD 64 UNDER WATER FOR ONE-EIGHTH MILE.

&&

MROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
934 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW HILLABEE CREEK    33.09N 85.95W
09/19/2009                   TALLAPOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MARTIN ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO WATER RUNNING OVER THE
            ROAD. RED BARN RD HAS ALSO BEEN CLOSED.

&&

GOLDEN