Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WGUS74 KBMX 111901
FFSBMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
201 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009

ALC127-111930-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-090911T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WALKER AL-
201 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY...

AT 158 PM CDT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE 
AREA...AND SOME FLOODING OF ROADS IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LYNNS PARK

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3385 8727 3386 8712 3366 8712 3370 8731

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1105 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
INSTABILITY IS SEVERELY LACKING AND WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE CAPES WILL EXCEED 1000 JOULES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT THUNDER WILL BE LACKING.  UPDATED THE ZONES TO TONE DOWN
THE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ISOLATED...AND MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

IT APPEARS THAT THE TRANSITION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS 850 SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  LOOK FOR
THIS FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA.  IF GFS IS RIGHT THIS FEATURE CLEARS AREA BY MID
MORNING WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE.  FOR
THE MOST PART WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY (SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS EAST/SOUTHWEST)...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS DUE
TO IMPULSE AND BEST MOISTURE AXIS AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS TODAY LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY MIDDLE 80S.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.  MODELS COMING
AROUND TO DEEPENING UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
SLOWLY BRINGING THE LOW EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY.  ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.  FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW.  IT APPEARS
THAT SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  HIGHS EACH DAY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...BEGAN WONDERING IF WE WERE ON
TRACK WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.  BUT THINGS ARE BACK
ON COURSE AND THE SH/TSRA THAT HAVE BEEN EXPECTED SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...
THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES.  BIGGEST
CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE WITH MVFR VIS AND CIGS AT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF OUR SITES.  FURTHER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO TS BY 18 OR 19Z.  FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
LISTED VC AS STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE TOO SCATTERED TO
NAIL DOWN A SPECIFIC HOUR AS TO WHEN ONE MIGHT CROSS OVER AN
AIRFIELD.  IF ONE DOES...EXPECT AT LEAST IFR VIS...AND MAYBE
CIG...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
SEE SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

50/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-121122-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FORECASTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...SOME MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
FORECASTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

27