Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WGUS74 KBMX 052356
FFSBMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

ALC001-007-021-047-091-105-060145-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-090906T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARENGO AL-DALLAS AL-AUTAUGA AL-PERRY AL-CHILTON AL-BIBB AL-
656 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN BIBB...CHILTON...PERRY...WEST CENTRAL AUTAUGA...NORTHERN
DALLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTIES...

AT 645 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER CONTINUED TO DETECT A LARGE 
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE 
INTENSITY OF THE THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED SINCE 6 PM...BUT RADAR HAS 
ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE 6 PM OVER NORTHERN 
DALLAS COUNTY AND WESTERN AUTAUGA COUNTY...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS 
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
WESTERN AUTAUGA AND CHILTON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3249 8752 3307 8724 3306 8690 3306 8660
      3304 8658 3273 8663 3271 8672 3267 8672
      3220 8731 3228 8742 3228 8752 3215 8752
      3215 8762 3201 8763 3201 8787

$$

58

000 
WGUS74 KBMX 060037
FFSBMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
737 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

ALC001-007-021-047-091-105-060044-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-090906T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARENGO AL-DALLAS AL-AUTAUGA AL-PERRY AL-CHILTON AL-BIBB AL-
737 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN BIBB...
CHILTON...PERRY...WEST CENTRAL AUTAUGA...NORTHERN DALLAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTIES...

THE RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 7 PM...AND 
THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.


TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3249 8752 3307 8724 3306 8690 3306 8660
      3304 8658 3273 8663 3271 8672 3267 8672
      3220 8731 3228 8742 3228 8752 3215 8752
      3215 8762 3201 8763 3201 8787

$$

58

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
325 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE RESULTS HAVE
BEEN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

HERES THE SETUP...THE WEDGE IS IN PLACE TO OUR NORTHEAST WHICH IS
PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH PRODUCES A CONVERGENCE AREA WHICH
ENHANCES LIFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THIS
SETUP. WE ARE GETTING THESE SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BASE OF
THE TROF THAT ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION AND PRODUCING THESE
CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS WITH SOME OCCURRING OVERNIGHT LIKE WE HAD
THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH COMPUTER MODELS ARE HANDLING THE OVERALL PATTERN
CORRECTLY...THEY ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PICKING UP WHEN THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE THOUGH. THE END RESULT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS PATTERN WILL
CHANGE MUCH ANY TIME SOON. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE STARTING TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE SITUATION. RAISED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MOS HAS NOT BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THE
DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THE KINDS OF TEMPERATURES THAT THEY
ARE PREDICTING FOR TONIGHT DOES NOT JIVE WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. AS A RESULT...WILL GO SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER FOR THE EVENING
PERIODS AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BHM FOR THE NEXT HOUR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING TO THE NORTH.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...EXCEPT UNDER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHERE VIS COULD BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN THE RAINFALL AT MOST TERMINALS WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER ONLY EXPECT VIS DOWN
TO MVFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL AND SUBSEQUENT TIMING OF
SH/TS TOMORROW. THINK THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BEYOND THIS FORECASTS TIMEFRAME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  80  64  82  59 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    67  83  65  84  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  68  81  68  83  64 /  40  50  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  83  67  85  64 /  40  60  40  40  20
CALERA      68  83  67  83  63 /  30  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      68  85  68  84  65 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  85  68  85  64 /  30  40  30  40  20
TROY        69  86  67  84  63 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-061230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
550 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX INCHES...WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

STEFKOVICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

ALZ033-052145-
PERRY-
342 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 341 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNIONTOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  UNIONTOWN.
  VALDEN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10/ARM